@article {bnh-5075, title = {Exploring the circumstances surrounding flood fatalities in Australia{\textemdash}1900{\textendash}2015 and the implications for policy and practice}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy}, volume = {76}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, pages = {165-176}, chapter = {165}, abstract = {

This paper documents the analysis of the circumstances surrounding fatalities due to flooding in Australia between 1900 and 2015. This longitudinal investigation is important to understand changing trends in social vulnerability and to inform efficient and strategic risk reduction strategies. The basis of this analysis was\ PerilAUS, Risk Frontiers{\textquoteright} database of historical natural hazard impacts in Australia. This data was augmented and verified using coronial inquest records which provide detailed data concerning the social, demographic and environmental circumstances of each fatality. A statistical analysis of the data was undertaken, examining demographics (age, gender), location (state), seasonality, circumstances surrounding the fatality,\ environmental factors\ (e.g. the event intensity) and social factors (e.g. the decisions or actions which led to death). Overall there have been 1859 fatalities identified, with distinct trends in relation to gender, age, activity and reason behind the activity. Flood deaths have been declining. The majority of the fatalities are male (79.3\%): however, since the 1960s the proportion of female to male fatalities has increased. Children and young adults (\<29years) make up the greatest proportion of the fatalities (53.8\% of cases where age is known). The highest proportions of fatalities occurred while victims attempted to cross a flood-impacted bridge or road. The recommendations for\ emergency management\ policy and practice are discussed, outlining the need for a new approach that accounts for a continuum of measures including regulation and incentive, education and structural intervention.

}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.07.003}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901117301818}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Coates, Lucinda and Robin van den Honert and Andrew Gissing and Deanne Bird and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira and Rebecca D{\textquoteright}Arcy and Chloe Smith and Deirdre Radford} } @article {bnh-2735, title = {An analysis of human fatalities from floods in Australia 1900-2015}, number = {166}, year = {2016}, month = {05/2016}, abstract = {

This report examines the socio-demographic and environmental circumstances surrounding flood fatalities in Australia between 1900 and 2015. It is the first major milestone from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre funded project {\textquotedblleft}An analysis of human fatalities and building losses from natural disasters in Australia{\textquotedblright}.

The foundation for this work is the use of the Risk Frontiers{\textquoteright} database PerilAUS, which contains historical data on the incidence (magnitude, affected locations, etc.) and consequences (property damage and fatalities, etc.) of natural hazard events in Australia. PerilAUS contains many of the names of the deceased, which, during the course of this project has enabled the collection of more detailed information on the circumstances of many of the fatalities from coronial inquest reports. Since project commencement, the Flood Database has increased in total number of flood events by 75\%. The number of fatal flood events has increased by 100\% over the length of the project. Importantly, the percentage of named fatalities has increased from 50\% to 90\%, in addition to an increase in the overall numbers of fatalities.

The data has been analysed in relation to informing the understanding of the circumstances surrounding the deaths and how this information could best be utilised for emergency management policy and practice. This has included an examination of the data around the following themes: demographics, cause of death, location of the fatality and transport, activity and reason behind action prior to death, capacity and awareness, and flood type and severity.\ 

}, issn = {166}, author = {Katharine Haynes and Coates, Lucinda and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira and Andrew Gissing and Deanne Bird and Robin van den Honert and Deirdre Radford and Rebecca D{\textquoteright}Arcy and Chloe Smith} } @conference {bnh-1574, title = {Disruption of critical infrastructure during prolonged natural disasters Conference Paper 2014}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC Wellington Conference 2014}, year = {2015}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, abstract = {

Recent events such as the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes, New Zealand; 2009 Southeast Australia heatwave; 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallaj{\"o}kull volcano, Iceland; and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in Japan, have highlighted the vulnerability of infrastructure and essential services to long-term disruption from prolonged and complex natural disasters. Prolonged natural disasters can impact surrounding areas for weeks to months after the initial event, causing vast and on-going disruption to utility, transport and communication networks; infrastructure that is vitally important for everyday living, the economy and emergency response. The quake-stricken Canterbury region of New Zealand endured thousands of disruptive aftershocks that continued for over two years following the initial earthquake in 2010. These aftershocks contributed to delays in repair and rebuilding, and caused significant additional damage. Our growing reliance on infrastructure and technology, along with the strong interdependent nature of these critical services, can potentially turn one failure into a cascading disaster. Local impacts to critical infrastructure can also lead to the interruption of essential services in regions that were not directly impacted by the physical hazard event. It has never been more important to understand network vulnerabilities and to analyse the cost of long-term disruption, both social and economic. Whilst significant work has gone into understanding the direct impacts from natural hazards, less emphasis has been placed on understanding the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, including indirect and long-term disruption.

}, author = {Phillips, E and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira and Koschatzky, V and Somerville, P} } @conference {bnh-2077, title = {An earthquake loss scenario for Adelaide - peer viewed}, booktitle = {Adelaide Conference 2015}, year = {2015}, address = {Adelaide, Australia}, abstract = {

Research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC \& AFAC Conference in Adelaide, 1-3 September 2015.\ 

}, author = {Koschatzky, V and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira and Somerville, P} } @article {bnh-2344, title = {Using natural disaster scenarios to better understand emergency management requirements: Annual project report 2014-2015}, number = {137}, year = {2015}, month = {02/11/2015}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project aims to produce realistic natural disaster event scenarios to help emergency managers understand and prepare for eventual natural disasters. Scenarios consist of numerical data such as maps and tables representing the impacts of a plausible natural disaster scenarios; plausibility is determined by analyzing past event occurrence, intensity and impact data. Scenarios are created by using a suite of analysis tools including statistical inference, expert elicitation and comparative analysis in order to create abstract representations of an event, which is as close to reality as possible.

Over the past year, this project has delivered its first two complete scenarios, namely, an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 occuring in the Para fault underneath Adelaide CBD, and a tropical cyclone affecting SE Queensland (to be delivered third quarter 2015). The outcomes of the Adelaide scenario comprise:

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Total aggregated damage to residential and commercial properties

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Maps showing the distribution and intensity of damage to buildings and casualties

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Distribution of infrastructure and essential facilities (hospitals, schools, roads, etc) that would be destroyed in such an event

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Comparative analysis with past events

These outcomes and their detailed interpretation were delivered in a corresponding technical note. Results were presented to end-users in a workshop held in Adelaide including representatives of SAFECOM and other SA government agencies including SA police and DPTI. According feedback from end-users, future scenarios should:

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Take into account the distribution of vulnerable populations (elderly, disabled)

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Account for the relationship between different infrastructure systems (e.g. how damage to roads impacts hospital operations).

-\ \ \ \ \ \  Cost of response and cost-benfit analysis of mitigation measures

Following this, work on year 2 scenarios has begun. A workshop was held with NSW SES end user to determine appropriate scenario events of interest to their agency. This complemented comments and suggestions drawn from the full end-user community at the most recent RAF. Resultant scenarios to be explored over the coming year will be:

  1. A sequence of minor and major flood events in NSW
  2. Heatwave mortality during a major event in VIC
  3. Tropical cyclone induced flooding in SE Qld and northern NSW
}, issn = {137}, author = {Felipe Dimer de Oliveira and M. S. Mason} } @article {bnh-1658, title = {Exploring 167 years of vulnerability: An examination of extreme heat events in Australia 1844{\textendash}2010}, journal = {Environmental Science and Policy}, volume = {42}, year = {2014}, month = {10/2014}, pages = {33-44}, chapter = {33}, abstract = {

Despite their relative importance in terms of human mortality, extreme heat events have not attracted the same level of study compared with other natural hazards in regards to vulnerability and implications for emergency management and policy change. Definitional confusion and inconsistencies in defining heat related deaths over time have made it difficult to determine an absolute death toll. Notwithstanding these issues, this study employs PerilAUS {\textendash} Risk Frontiers{\textquoteright} database of natural hazard event impacts {\textendash} in combination with official sources in an attempt to provide a lower-bound estimate of heat-associated deaths in Australia since European settlement. From 1844 to 2010, extreme heat events have been responsible for at least 5332 fatalities in Australia and, since 1900, 4555: more than the combined total of deaths from all other natural hazards. Over 30\% of those deaths occurred in just nine events.

Both deaths and death rates (per unit of population) fluctuate widely but show an overall decrease with time. The male to female death-rate ratio has fluctuated and approaches but does not reach equality in more recent times. In line with other studies, seniors have been the most vulnerable age group overall, with infants also over-represented. Policy implications in view of a warming climate and an ageing population are discussed.

}, keywords = {Extreme heat event, Heat waves, Mortality statistics, Natural disasters, Vulnerability}, doi = {doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2014.05.003}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901114000999}, author = {Coates, Lucinda and Katharine Haynes and James O{\textquoteright}Brien and John McAneney and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira} } @article {BF-4274, title = {Environmental circumstances surrounding bushfire fatalities in Australia 1901{\textendash}2011}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy}, year = {2013}, month = {11/2013}, pages = {1-12}, chapter = {1}, abstract = {This paper describes the development and analysis of a dataset covering bushfire related life loss in Australia over the past 110 years (1901{\textendash}2011). Over this time period 260 bushfires have been associated with a total of 825 known civilian and firefighter fatalities. This database was developed to provide an evidence base from which an Australian national fire danger rating system can be developed and has benefits in formalising our understanding of community exposure to bushfire. The database includes detail of the spatial, temporal and localised context in which the fatalities occurred. This paper presents the analysis of 674 civilian fatalities. The analysis has focused on characterising the relationship between fatal exposure location, weather conditions (wind speed, temperature, relative humidity and drought indices), proximity to fuel, activities and decision making leading up to the death. The analysis demonstrates that civilian fatalities were dominated by several iconic bushfires that have occurred under very severe weather conditions. The fatalities from Australia{\textquoteright}s 10 worst bushfire days accounted for 64\% of all civilian fatalities. Over 50\% of all fatalities occurred on days where the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) exceeded 100 (the current threshold for declaring a day as {\textquoteleft}catastrophic{\textquoteright}) proximal to the fatality. The dominant location category was open air representing 58\% of all fatalities followed by 28\% in structures, and 8\% in vehicles (6\% are unknown). For bushfires occurring under weather conditions exceeding an FFDI value of 100, fatalities within structures represented over 60\% of all fatalities. These were associated with people dying while attempting to shelter mainly in their place of residence. Of the fatalities that occurred inside a structure in a location that was specifically known, 41\% occurred in rooms with reduced visibility to the outside conditions. Over 78\% of all fatalities occurred within 30 m of the forest.}, keywords = {Fatalities, Policy, Warnings, Wildfire, WUI}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2013.09.013}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901113002074}, author = {Blanchi, Raphaele and Justin Leonard and Katharine Haynes and Kimberley Opie and Melissa James and Felipe Dimer de Oliveira} }