@article {bnh-6989, title = {Disasters and economic resilience: the effects of the Queensland Floods 2010-11 on individual income: a case study on the Brisbane River catchment area}, number = {577}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Australians are all too familiar with disasters arising from natural hazards like bushfires, cyclones, and floods. With climate change, we face the possibility of more frequent and intense natural hazards in new and unexpected places.

As we enter an uncertain decade, we find ourselves increasingly asking: What does a disaster-resilient Australia look like? How can we help our most vulnerable Australian communities endure the cumulative effects of frequent disasters? Amid tightening fiscal budgets, how can we create the right environment for our communities and economy to prosper in this new reality?

Answering these questions requires some deep thinking about the collective actions needed to support our communities, businesses, and the broader economy to become more disaster resilient; to not only adapt to a {\textquotedblleft}new normal{\textquotedblright} but thrive in a changing climate. From a policy perspective, this becomes more pertinent when we consider that the average annual total economic costs of natural disasters of Australia are forecast to reach $39 billion per year by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2017),[1] and the fiscal constraints that will increasingly be imposed on government disaster expenditure by Australia{\textquoteright}s aging population.

To that end, the Disasters and Economic Resilience: The Effects of the Queensland Floods 2010-11 on Individual Income {\textendash} A Case Study on the Brisbane River Catchment Area report explores the impact of the Queensland Floods 2010-11 on the income trajectory of employed residents of the four Brisbane River Catchment Area (BRCA) local government areas (LGAs) depicted in Figure 1.

The Queensland Floods 2010-11 remain one of Australia{\textquoteright}s costliest flooding events, causing an estimated $6.7 billion in tangible damages, with an overall cost of $14.1 billion (Deloitte Access Economics, 2016). To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first in the economics literature to examine the impact of a riverine-flooding in an Australian metropolitan economy on individual income, considering demographic and sectoral heterogeneities and post-disaster government assistance.

By focusing on individuals{\textquoteright} economic resilience (measured through changes in their income stream), the report explores how disaster-induced economic shocks can be transmitted to individuals vis-{\`a}-vis income-earning channels, and offers a greater understanding of how indirect costs of disasters are borne by different segments of the workforce. Such costs are currently less known compared to direct damages reported in the immediate aftermath of disasters.

By examining the economic dimension of disaster resilience at the individual level, our research helps policymakers better understand the socioeconomics of natural disasters and formulate public policies in a sustainable way that better distributes scarce budgets and resources towards vulnerable socioeconomic groups and industries of employment that are more sensitive to disasters.

Recognising the profound and long-lasting psychosocial impacts of the floods, the report outlines the socioeconomic and disaster resilience profiles of the BRCA LGAs, and provides additional information to contextualise our assessment so that policymakers can holistically interpret our findings, within the broader social and economic conditions arising from the floods.\ 

Isolating the effects of the floods from other shocks that hit the BRCA LGAs is challenging. The report attempts to pinpoint observed income effects to the Queensland Floods 2010-11 by using a difference-in-differences modelling approach. This approach compares income changes of individuals living in the BRCA LGAs (treatment group) with those living in comparable zones in Australia (control group). Because of their comparability, it is the control group which provides us with the income path that would have occurred for BRCA LGA employed residents had the floods not happened, and thus enable us to compute any income deviations (losses or gains) arisfrom the floods. \ 

The report utilises the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset (ACLD), which provides a unique opportunity to robustly examine the flood{\textquoteright}s impacts across a longer timeframe (across 2006, 2011 and 2016) and across multiple dimensions (demographic and economic). All results we report are net results, post any disaster relief and recovery efforts; are relative to our baseline year (2006); and are compared to our control group. We define short-term results as changes over 2006-11, and medium-term results as changes over 2006-16.

While we develop the right modelling framework to capture income effects arising from the floods, data limitations have hampered our ability to statistically confirm that our control group is comparable to the BRCA LGA sample. The key implication is that our findings are not causal but correlational.

Nevertheless, our report{\textquoteright}s findings offer new and compelling insights on how disasters like the Queensland Floods 2010-11 interact with existing economic conditions and workforce compositions to affect individuals within the community, and in turn their ability to economically cope with the ongoing effects of the disaster.

}, keywords = {case study, disasters, economic resilience, Floods}, issn = {577}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Farah Beaini} } @article {bnh-6307, title = {Demographic profiling: Queensland floods 2010-11 Brisbane River catchment area case study}, number = {527}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we provide some high-level demographic profiling and descriptive analysis of the Queensland Flood 2010-11 flood-affected Brisbane River catchment local government areas (LGAs):\ 

The profiling utilises the ABS Census as the primary data source (in line with project\ methodology) as well as official government reports for flood-related statistics.\ In presenting this information, we note that our demographic rofiling captures\ the overall population-level trends for these areas, which are affected by factors\ including migration and population growth. This enables us to present a baseline\ of the overall socioeconomic characteristics and conditions of these areas both\ prior to (2006) and post the floods (2011, 2016).\ This report is part of a series of demographic profiling reports which will be\ released for each of the project case studies.

}, keywords = {Brisbane river, economic impact, Emergency management, flood safety, Floods, optimisation, risk analysis}, issn = {527}, author = {Farah Beaini and Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-6293, title = {Demographic profiling: Western Australia Toodyay bushfires 2009 case study}, number = {526}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we provide some high-level demographic profiling and descriptive analysis of the Shire of Toodyay, a small town in the Western Australian Wheatbelt region that was devastated by bushfires on 29 December 2009.

The profiling utilises the ABS Census as the primary data source (in line with project methodology), at either a SA2 or local government area (LGA) level, depending on available information. It also relies on official government reports for fire related statistics.

In presenting this information, we note that our demographic profiling captures the overall population-level trends, which are affected by factors including migration and population growth. This enables us to present a baseline of the overall socioeconomic characteristics and conditions of Toodyay both prior to (2006) and post the fires (2011, 2016).

This report is part of a series of demographic profiling reports which will be released for each of the project case studies.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, optimisation, post-disaster, recovery, risk analysis}, issn = {526}, author = {Farah Beaini and Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @conference {bnh-6409, title = {Disasters and economic resilience in small regional communities: the case of Toodyay}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We explore the effects of a small bushfire on the income trajectory of employed residents of Toodyay, a regional town in Western Australia. Our study reveals how detailed profiling, using public data, can overcome statistical limitations in disaster risk reduction exercises and better direct post-recovery interventions to minimise disruptions to important income streams in small regional towns.

Download the full peer reviewed research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk reduction, economics, resilience}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Mehmet Ulubasoglu and Farah Beaini} } @article {bnh-5214, title = {Demographic profiling: Victorian bushfires 2009 case study}, year = {2018}, month = {12/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we provide some high-level demographic profiling and descriptive analysis of the Victorian Black Saturday bushfire affected areas to present a baseline of their overall socioeconomic characteristics, drilling in on particular attributes (e.g. home ownership) to provide further context to some of our more puzzling research findings. The profiling is area-based (either SA2 or LGA, depending on available information) and utilises the ABS Census as the primary data source, in line with project methodology.

This report is part of a series of demographic profiling reports which will be released for each of the project case studies.

}, issn = {444}, author = {Farah Beaini and Mehmet Ulubasoglu} }