@inbook {bnh-5412, title = {Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere: Perspectives and Challenges for the Built Environment in Australia}, booktitle = {Hurricane Risk}, volume = {1}, year = {2019}, pages = {199-214}, publisher = {Springer}, organization = {Springer}, address = {Cham}, abstract = {

With statistically significant trends suggesting that tropical cyclones are migrating poleward in the Southern Hemisphere, specifically in the South Pacific Ocean basin, it is important to review the current state of knowledge on poleward migrating tropical cyclone activity. Furthermore, given the potential impacts they may have on regions traditionally unaffected by tropical cyclones, review of current residential building practice in Australia is warranted. This chapter highlights the significance of the long-term poleward trends in the Southern Hemisphere and potential mechanisms that are driving the geographical shift. Residential building practice in cyclonic and non-cyclonic regions in Australia is discussed to address existing vulnerabilities and how they can lead to catastrophic impacts. Methods and tools to evaluate tropical cyclone risk as well as future research needs are then discussed in the context of adapting to and mitigating for tropical cyclone activity that may migrate poleward. Finally, the chapter concludes with a summary and some finishing thoughts about the advantages of forming multidisciplinary teams to address the grand challenge of disaster resilience in the built environment in Australia.

}, keywords = {hurricane, hurricane risk, risk, South Pacific Ocean basin}, isbn = {978-3-030-02401-7}, issn = {978-3-030-02402-4}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_10}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_10}, author = {Richard Krupar III and D. J. Smith} } @article {bnh-5162, title = {Analysis of rapid damage assessment data following severe windstorm events}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {32}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, abstract = {

The Cyclone Testing Station (CTS) and partners have conducted forensic damage assessments in Australia following severe windstorm events for over four decades. The information collected is used for building science research that provides the evidence base needed for improvements to building codes and development of damage mitigation solutions. The Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) operate Rapid Damage Assessment (RDA) teams in the aftermath of major disasters (e.g. cyclone and bushfire) to collect and disseminate information on extent of damage to buildings in impacted communities. These data enables focused and coordinated response in the immediate aftermath of an event and better planning for event recovery. This paper explores the use of QFES RDA datasets in analysing the damaging effects of severe windstorm events. Two case studies are discussed: a supercell that hit Brisbane on 27 November 2014 and Tropical Cyclone Debbie that made landfall along the northern Queensland coastline in March 2017. Where possible, damage data are combined with hazard information (dual-Doppler radar horizontal wind fields) and their relationship is investigated. The analysis demonstrates that RDA data are not only useful in response and recovery phases, but also have value for research aiming to better understand building failures and reduce damage in future events.

}, url = {https://ajem.infoservices.com.au/items/AJEM-32-04-21}, author = {Daniel Smith and Richard Krupar III and David Henderson and M. S. Mason} } @article {bnh-3805, title = {A modified Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia (2015) scenario: wind and storm tide hazards and impacts}, number = {258}, year = {2017}, month = {07/2017}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report describes research undertaken to develop a modified Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia (2015) scenario and details its wind and storm tide-related impacts on buildings and society in Livingstone Shire and the Rockhampton Region. A perturbed version of the original track taken by Cyclone Marcia was chosen to create an ensemble event set of possible worstcase wind and storm tide inundation scenarios for the region of interest and the key findings of this work are as follows:

Future work will seek to improve the exposure dataset used in this scenario. Improvements will include adding critical infrastructure such as power lines and water distribution networks, as well as, updating Geocoded {\textendash} National Address File (G-NAF) building level estimates of property value, contents value and population using ground truth data. The wind, rainfall and storm surge hazard models and associated vulnerability models used in the current multi-hazard model framework will also be updated. The wind hazard model will include new environmental parameters (i.e. sea surface temperature and deep layer wind shear) that influence tropical cyclone formation and maintenance. This improvement will help generate more realistic cyclones wind fields. The rainfall hazard model will be calibrated to Australian surface terrain and topography to simulate inland rainfall enhancements and will be paired with a hydrodynamic runoff model to simulate inland flooding damage and impacts to buildings, critical infrastructure and society during the post-landfall phase. The storm tide hazard model will be updated to simulate inland flooding impacts (e.g. surge-induced riverine flooding) by including the influence of the underlying surface roughness overland and expanding the mesh inland. Updates to the wind and flood vulnerability models will be made as new results surface from Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC projects aiming to develop and improve these types of models. The flood vulnerability model will be updated to include flow velocity and wave effects. Finally, combined or joint hazard impacts (i.e. wind driven rain) will be evaluated to develop joint-hazard damage functions in future model releases.\ 

}, issn = {258}, author = {Richard Krupar III and M. S. Mason} } @article {bnh-4230, title = {Severe wind hazard preliminary assessment: Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Whitsunday Coast, Queensland, Australia}, year = {2017}, month = {03/2017}, institution = {James Cook University}, address = {Townsville}, abstract = {

Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie was a category 4 system that made landfall near Airlie Beach (Figure 1) on the north Queensland coast at midday on the 28th of March, 2017. As part of a continuing effort to better characterize wind fields that impact communities during severe wind events, the Cyclone Testing Station (with collaborators from the Wind Research Laboratory at The University of Queensland) deployed SWIRLnet (Surface Weather Relay and Logging Network) weather stations to the region prior to Debbie{\textquoteright}s landfall. Six SWIRLnet towers (3.2 m high anemometers placed in the communities likely to be affected) collected data continuously prior to, during and after landfall. Three towers were deployed in the Ayr/Home Hill region, two in Bowen and one in Proserpine (Figure 2). This Preliminary Assessment Report details the initial observations from these towers, compares these with Bureau of Meteorology Automatic Weather Station observations, and makes some preliminary comment on the damage to structures in stormaffected communities.

}, url = {https://www.jcu.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/422951/TC-Debbie-Rapid-Assessment-Report_v8.pdf}, author = {Thomas Kloetzke and Korah Parackal and D. J. Smith and Richard Krupar III and Leblais, Alex and Humphreys, M and Spassiani, Alessio and M. S. Mason and David Roueche and David O Prevatt and David Henderson and Boughton, Geoffrey N.} } @conference {bnh-2938, title = {Evaluating topographic influences on the near-surface wind field of Tropical Cyclone Ita (2014) using WRF-ARW}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Ita (2014) was a major storm that affected coastal areas of Northeast Queensland. Topographic features along the coastline are known to modify the structure and intensity of such events. This study utilises the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model to investigate topographic influences during the landfall phase of TC Ita. While the removal of topography over the whole domain steers the modelled TC far away from the landfall point, removing topography from only a smaller area allowed an investigation of the topographic influence on near-surface wind conditions in that area. Flow over the region of removed topography exhibit smaller inland velocity gradients for winds flowing onshore and a sharper acceleration of winds as they moved offshore.

}, author = {Thomas Kloetzke and M. S. Mason and Richard Krupar III} } @conference {bnh-2954, title = {Forecasting the impact of tropical cyclones using global numerical weather prediction ensemble forecasts: a Tropical Cyclone Marcia (2015) wind and rainfall case study}, booktitle = {AFAC16}, year = {2016}, month = {08/2016}, publisher = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, organization = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Brisbane}, abstract = {

Wind hazard and rainfall models were coupled to estimate hourly open exposure maximum three-second gust wind speeds and rainfall totals for Tropical Cyclone (TC) Marcia (2015) using Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) best track data. Yeppoon The Esplanade automatic weather station (AWS) was used to perform a verification of the simulated hourly open exposure maximum three-second gust wind speed and rainfall totals with observed estimates. Preliminary verification results reveal that the wind hazard model overestimates the AWS hourly maximum three-second gust wind speed and the rainfall model underestimates the hourly total rainfall. Ensemble prediction system (EPS) forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) were examined to determine their utility in simulating TC Marcia{\textquoteright}s wind and rainfall fields and impacts. The ECMWF EPS fails to capture Marcia{\textquoteright}s rapid intensification at 72, 48, and 24 hours leading up to the landfall. A time-varying calibration factor is required at each forecast initialization in order to adjust each ensemble forecast member{\textquoteright}s minimum central pressure to a more realistic estimate of the minimum central pressure to properly simulate impacts to humans and the built environment.

}, author = {Richard Krupar III and M. S. Mason} }