@article {bnh-5623, title = {Describing adaptation tipping points in coastal flood risk management}, journal = {Computers, Environment and Urban Systems}, volume = {69}, year = {2018}, month = {05/2018}, abstract = {

Assessing changing coastal flood risk becomes increasingly uncertain across multi-decadal timeframes. This uncertainty is a fundamental complexity faced in\ vulnerability\ assessments and adaptation planning. Robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) are two\ state-of-the-artdecision support\ methods that are useful in such situations. In this study we use RDM to identify a small set of conditions that cause unacceptable impacts from\ coastal flooding, signifying that an adaptation tipping point is reached. Flexible adaptation pathways can then be designed using the DAPP framework. The methodology is illustrated using a case study in Australia and underpinned by a\ geographic information system\ model. The results suggest that conditions identified in scenario discovery direct the attention of decision-makers towards a small number of uncertainties most influential on the vulnerability of a community to changing flood patterns. This can facilitate targeted data collection and coastal\ monitoring activities\ when resources are scarce. Importantly, it can also be employed to illustrate more broadly how uncontrolled\ societal development, land use and historic building regulations might exacerbate flood impacts in low-lying urban areas. Notwithstanding the challenges that remain around\ simulation modelling and\ detection of\ environmental change, the results from our study suggest that RDM can be embedded within a DAPP framework to better plan for changing coastal flood risks.

}, keywords = {adaptation, Climate change, Inundation, Tipping point, uncertainty, Vulnerability}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2018.01.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0198971517304520}, author = {Timothy Ramm and Christopher Stephen Watson and Christopher J. White} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5391, title = {Improving adaptation planning for future sea level rise and coastal flooding}, year = {2018}, school = {University of Tasmania}, address = {Hobart}, abstract = {

Sea level rise has the potential to exacerbate coastal flooding around the world, causing more frequent extreme sea levels, nuisance flooding and permanent inundation. Projecting diverse physical, environmental and socio-economic impacts to coastal communities across multi-decadal timeframes is vital for informed adaptation planning. However, this is increasingly uncertain and challenged by conflicting stakeholder priorities.

This thesis develops an interdisciplinary approach to advance the planning of long-term adaptation pathways in the context of coastal flood risk management. Utilising three case studies in south-east Australia, it combines the strengths of robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) {\textendash} both prominent tools to support decision-making under conditions of uncertainty {\textendash} together with solicited values-based information to make three novel advances towards flexible adaptation pathways planning.

First, this thesis combines the strengths of RDM and DAPP for planning adaptation pathways by using scenario discovery to provide a multi-dimensional description of adaptation tipping points. The scenario discovery process uses an existing cluster finding algorithm to identify future conditions where adaptation policies no longer keep flood risk at tolerable levels. Combining RDM and DAPP is a novel approach in coastal flood risk management and scenario discovery provides greater visibility on the physical factors driving adaptation tipping points. Second, values-based information is integrated into the adaptation planning process in an attempt to consider subjective social and cultural impacts from coastal flooding. In this regard, the novel combination and explanatory value of lived and landscape values is investigated. Consideration of these more intangible effects are often omitted in coastal adaptation planning but can contribute to more informed adaptation decisions. Third, the combined RDM and DAPP method developed uses both geographic information system (GIS) software and open source programming tools to analyse flood impacts. This improves the usability and relevance of a combined RDM and DAPP approach, enabling the efficient redeployment and customisation of the method to suit different location-specific needs. Such an approach also provides a lower cost entry point for local government agencies to begin planning coastal adaptation pathways.

Each of these advances combine to provide a framework that improves the way coastal adaptation pathways are planned and developed. The findings elucidated from the case studies show how a combined RDM and DAPP approach can account for spatial and temporal interactions between hazard, exposure and vulnerability flood risk factors, which improves the way robustness is measured for adaptation policy options. Values-based approaches can shape the selection of adaptation objectives, improve the design of options, support the evaluations of adaptation pathways and inform monitoring systems. The resultant adaptation pathways framework can support local government in planning sustainable strategies to manage long-term flood impacts. This has global applications for coastal flood risk management that will become increasingly important throughout the coming century.

}, keywords = {adaptation, Climate change, coastal flooding, decision-making, Planning, risk, sea level rise, uncertainty}, url = {https://eprints.utas.edu.au/29624/}, author = {Timothy Ramm} } @article {bnh-5263, title = {Strategic adaptation pathway planning to manage sea-level rise and changing coastal flood risk}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy}, volume = {87}, year = {2018}, month = {10/2018}, pages = {9}, chapter = {92}, abstract = {

Communities around the world are already committed to future sea-level rise. Long-term adaptation planning to manage associated coastal flood impacts is, however, challenged by uncertainty and contested stakeholder priorities. This study provides a proof of concept for a combined robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) approach in coastal flood risk management. The concept uses model-based support and largely open source tools to help local government plan coastal adaptation pathways. Key steps in the method are illustrated using a hypothetical case study in Australia. The study shows how scenario discovery can provide multi-dimensional descriptions of adaptation tipping points which may inform the development of technical signpost indicators. Transient scenarios uncovered limitations in seemingly robust adaptation policies, where historical path dependencies may constrain the rate of adaptation and the extent to which future coastal flood impacts can be successfully managed. Lived values have the potential to offer insights about non-material social trade-offs that residents may need to accept for the benefit of reduced flood risk, and could form a basis for defining socially-oriented signpost indicators. However, the nuances and subjectivity of lived values means that ongoing engagement with residents is essential as part of a combined RDM and DAPP approach to preserve the communities{\textquoteright} way of life. The learnings from this hypothetical case study suggest that testing in a real world participatory setting could be valuable in further developing a combined RDM and DAPP approach to plan adaptation pathways and manage future coastal flood risk.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2018.06.001}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901118303678}, author = {Timothy Ramm and Christopher Stephen Watson and Christopher J. White} } @article {bnh-3849, title = {Advancing values-based approaches to climate change adaptation: A case study from Australia}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy}, volume = {76}, year = {2017}, month = {10/2017}, pages = {113-123}, chapter = {113}, abstract = {

Coastal flooding affects physical and social place attachments. Values-based approaches to climate change adaptation examine how risks to place attachments are distributed within and among communities, with a view to informing equitable adaptation policies. In this nascent body of research, divergent theoretical frameworks and empirical approaches to measuring social values are evolving. While some studies explore the things people value about their everyday lives generally{\textemdash}the lived values approach, others locate specific social and cultural values in geographic space{\textemdash}the landscape values mapping approach. This study aims to compare the explanatory value of these two approaches for understanding the social risks of sea-level rise, and appraise whether either or both approaches are likely to meet local adaptation planning needs. It does this by examining the potential social impacts of sea-level rise in Kingston Beach, Australia, informed by a mail-out survey of the community. The lived values approach identified that the natural environment, scenery, relaxed lifestyle and safety are highly important to local residents, while the landscape values mapping approach revealed that Kingston Main Beach is the most highly valued of eight coastal landscape units. Incorporating the landscape values mapping into the lived values cluster analysis revealed that while Kingston Main Beach is highly important for its recreational value to some members of the community, for others manmade features such as community halls or sports ovals may be of higher importance because they facilitate social interactions. There is potential to further integrate these two approaches to better inform adaptation policy about how lived and landscape values are distributed among communities, where they are located in space and whether they change over time. A deeper understanding of such assigned values can lead to improved engagement with coastal residents to inform adaptation policy now and into the future.

}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2017.06.014}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901117302903?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Timothy Ramm and Sonia Graham and Christopher J. White and Christopher Stephen Watson} } @article {bnh-3848, title = {A review of methodologies applied in Australian practice to evaluate long-term coastal adaptation options}, journal = {Climate Risk Management}, year = {2017}, month = {08/2017}, abstract = {

Rising sea levels have the potential to alter coastal flooding regimes around the world and local governments are beginning to consider how to manage uncertain coastal change. In doing so, there is increasing recognition that such change is deeply uncertain and unable to be reliably described with probabilities or a small number of scenarios. Characteristics of methodologies applied in Australian practice to evaluate long-term coastal adaptation options are reviewed and benchmarked against two state-of-the-art international methods suited for conditions of uncertainty (Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways). Seven out of the ten Australian case studies assumed the uncertain parameters, such as sea level rise, could be described deterministically or stochastically when identifying risk and evaluating adaptation options across multi-decadal periods. This basis is not considered sophisticated enough for long-term decision-making, implying that Australian practice needs to increase the use of scenarios to explore a much larger uncertainty space when assessing the performance of adaptation options. Two Australian case studies mapped flexible adaptation pathways to manage uncertainty, and there remains an opportunity to incorporate quantitative methodologies to support the identification of risk thresholds. The contextual framing of risk, including the approach taken to identify risk (top-down or bottom-up) and treatment of uncertain parameters, were found to be fundamental characteristics that influenced the methodology selected to evaluate adaptation options. The small sample of case studies available suggests that long-term coastal adaptation in Australian is in its infancy and there is a timely opportunity to guide local government towards robust methodologies for developing long-term coastal adaptation plans

}, doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2017.06.005}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096316301188?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Timothy Ramm and Christopher J. White and Andrew H. C. Chan and Christopher Stephen Watson} } @conference {bnh-3167, title = {Accounting for uncertainty in cost benefit analysis: A generalised framework for natural hazard adaptation in the coastal zone}, booktitle = {36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: The art and science of water }, year = {2015}, month = {2015}, publisher = {Informit}, organization = {Informit}, abstract = {

The social, economic and environmental vulnerability of communities to natural hazards such as coastal inundation, riverine flooding and water security is increasing through the cumulative effect of different climatic and non-climatic factors. Formulating a basis upon which to make adaptation decisions (whether project or policy related) to strengthen community resilience to natural hazards is challenging, with uncertainty present in many data inputs. Sources of uncertainty include site-specific climatic projections, current economic and social cost-benefit valuation methodologies along with varying community preferences.\ 

Various adaptation {\textquoteright}frameworks{\textquoteright} have been put forward in the published literature. However, practical guidance for decision-makers looking to adapt to the climatic hazards can be unclear, with many different information sets being used, various data sources available, ambiguity on risk ownership and the influence of local political environments. A further challenge faced by stakeholders in following adaptation frameworks is the variability in methodologies and assumption used to define inputs to cost-benefit analysis.\ 

This paper discusses established adaptation frameworks and considers how changing natural hazards could be accounted for in cost-benefit analysis using common methodologies. We construct synthetic damage curves for riverine flooding to illustrate how risk-based damage estimates can be determined from natural hazards in future climate scenarios and compared with the benefits of adaptation. The paper finishes by identifying key challenges and future directions towards a generalized adaptation framework to help build resilience and manage the risks against changing natural hazards.

}, url = {http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=822034922948079;res=IELENG}, author = {Timothy Ramm} }