@article {bnh-8321, title = {Informing post-fire recovery planning of northern NSW rainforests}, number = {721}, year = {2022}, month = {03/2022}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = { Melbourne}, abstract = {

In historic times rainforests have comprised less than 2\% of the total forested area of NSW (Baur 1987) yet they have played a pivotal role in the states early timber industry, and the development of conservation policy, and are the only plant community in NSW to have been included in the name of a World Heritage property. The Gondwanan rainforests evolved in an environment of dependable rainfall and low fire frequency. They have persisted through multiple climate oscillations and glacial/inter-glacial cycles in refugia scattered through the Great Escarpment uplift landform. They now represent a collection of relictual species whose origins can be traced to the Eocene Epoch 55-37 million years ago when cool temperate taxa such as Nothofagus first appears in the fossil record.

In northern New South Wales, temperate rainforests are typically considered to be vulnerable to climate-change related natural hazards such as extended spring droughts and wildfires. Numerous reviews predict that extreme climatic events are likely to increase in frequency and/or intensity in coming decades (CSIRO 2019, 2020) and that wildfires will become larger, more intense, and more frequent. The vulnerability of temperate rainforests to fire is assumed to be the result of their limited intrinsic post-fire regenerative capacity, their susceptibility to canopy scorch and bark damage, and extrinsic factors such as their landscape position as patches within extensive areas of elevated fuel hazard in wet sclerophyll forest and woodland plant communities. The impacts of wildfires on temperate rainforests are heightened because wildfires are naturally infrequent, the vegetation is poorly adapted to fire, and fuel biomass is abundant and contiguous in the surrounding landscape.

During the 2019/20 wildfire season, 18.1\% of the extent of NSW{\textquoteright}s rainforest vegetation classes experienced either low, moderate, high, or extreme severity wildfire, a scale un-anticipated in earlier land management risk planning. While the proportion of each class varied, the greatest impacts occurred in Dry Rainforest and Northern Warm Temperate Rainforest. Across the Gondwana Rainforest of Australia World Heritage property (Gondwana Rainforests), 16 of the 28 reserves in the NSW section saw some fire impacts. This resulted in 8.6\% of the 112,145 ha of rainforest in these reserves experiencing either low, moderate, high, or extreme severity wildfire. The extent of the fire impacts was greatest in the Hastings-Macleay, New England, and Washpool-Gibraltar Range sections of the Gondwana Rainforests. The focus of the current study is the Hastings-Macleay section.

The 2019/20 wildfire season coincided with the lowest annual rainfall recorded in the Hastings-Macleay study area since local records commenced in 1959. Soil moisture deficits in rainforest were at their lowest recorded levels at the end of an extended spring drought in northern NSW. An analysis using data from a decade of soil moisture monitoring indicated that when soil moisture in rainforest reached 10-20\%, the rainforests become susceptible to fuel ignition and sustaining a wildfire.

In November 2019 multiple ignitions and running wildfires were occurring across northern NSW, and fire-fighting resources were prioritised to life and property protection. On November 9th 2019, an unprecedented seventeen wildfires were at Emergency Warning level on the same day in NSW, fire behaviour was erratic and rainforests were igniting and sustaining running fires. The wildfires impacted directly on long-term research plots established in 1959 in Werrikimbe and Willi National Parks in landscapes with extensive localised climate monitoring equipment. Resources were rapidly deployed within weeks of the wildfire impacting the research infrastructure to capture key elements of fire behaviour and commence post-fire assessments. With the financial support of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and NSW NPWS, citizen science volunteers began to measure the impacts of the wildfires and describe the recovery trajectory of the rainforest stands within the parks.

The long-term research plots provide a baseline to understanding pre-fire rainforest stand dynamics and condition. The 60 years of accumulated data highlighted the high biomass, slow growth rates, and highly episodic nature of tree regeneration in these rainforests. Annualized tree mortality was less than 1\%, and canopy dieback was associated with previous selective harvesting in the 1960s. Fine fuel biomass is low and inputs are strongly seasonal. Basal fire scars were present on trees across the stands surveyed prior to the 2019/20 wildfire season, indicating past wildfires had occurred in these rainforests during the past century, and it appears the majority of established trees were resilient to their effects. Evidence from char heights indicates the predominant fire behaviour experienced by the larger rainforest trees is low-intensity litter fires that progress slowly through the rainforest stands. This was corroborated in discussions with fire managers who had witnessed fires across multiple northern NSW rainforest reserves. Evidence from archival fire reporting and mapping suggests that the typical fire season in the 1950s peaked in November and now peaks two months earlier. These rainforests are approaching the driest months in early spring when lightning ignitions are also at their seasonal maximum.

Wildfires entered rainforest from front or flank spread leading to attrition of trees on rainforest margins. Monitoring dominant trees for 12 years in smaller rainforest stands demonstrated that they can tolerate multiple fires until their structural integrity weakens and fails. In 2019/20 ember attack was widespread in rainforest, but generally led to the ignition of small, localised areas (\<100 m2) or of individual trees. Mortality rates associated with the wildfires were 20-30\% across all tree species, with the proportion increasing with the severity of the wildfire event. This figure may prove to be an underestimate as lagged tree mortality effects from wildfires have been reported elsewhere for rainforests. The majority of burnt trees regenerated with basal coppicing. Seedling regeneration of tree species was infrequent due to the lack of a soil or canopy seed bank. Coppicing was more abundant where fire severity was low. Large trees with well-developed buttress hollows and scars were more likely to ignite due to the accumulation of dry wood and fuel at their base compared to smaller trees. Larger, older trees that had more pre-existing fire scars were more likely to die and collapse after burning. This is potentially an age effect where older and larger (diameter and height) trees have been subjected to more fire-induced wounds and hollows.

The temperate rainforests of northern NSW have been subject to wildfires in the past, and have a level of resilience to them. However, the susceptibility of the canopy dominant rainforest trees to basal wounding and collapse is a concern due to the longevity and age of these trees, their role in maintaining the rainforest microclimate, and their importance as habitat to a very diverse cargo of epiphytic bryophytes. Options to manage wildfire risk using conventional zoning and fuel hazard management may be limited. Fuel hazard was not particularly high during the 2019/20 wildfire season in the Hastings-Macleay section of Gondwana Rainforests, with most areas burnt in 2019 also having been burnt in 2013. Regardless, landscape-level fuel hazard management will not address the risk of individual mature rainforest tree ignition during conditions of significant ember attack when rainforest fine fuel biomass is naturally low.

A range of proposals are made to improve the knowledge base to better inform the spatially explicit wildfire risk assessment process trialled following the 2019/20 wildfire season. The central recommendation is the scoping of a systematic Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting (MER) system for the Gondwana Rainforests of Australia World Heritage property (Gondwana Rainforests) that focuses on establishing a baseline to track trends in the nominated World Heritage outstanding universal values or criteria. The system will require an integrated remote sensing and ground-based plot monitoring approach stratified by rainforest type and location. The monitoring plots established for this study can be readily integrated into the proposed MER system, and can be used to test the significance of ongoing or lagged tree mortality and to validate models of post-wildfire tree mortality and regeneration.

The current study has informed post-fire recovery planning by assessing the significance of the impacts of the 2019/20 wildfire season on rainforest stand structure, composition, tree mortality, and regeneration strategies. While the field measurements were in progress, recovery planning workshops hosted by the Commonwealth and NSW governments were attended and preliminary results were provided. The availability of existing long-term rainforest monitoring experiments dating from the 1950s, sections of which were burnt in November 2019, was critical to providing preliminary results within months of the fire event (Peacock 2020) to inform post-fire recovery planning. This outcome alone underscores the critical role long-term ecological monitoring systems have in rapidly supporting land managers information needs when responding to widespread natural hazards such as landscape-scale wildfires.

}, keywords = {nsw, Planning, post-fire, rainforests, recovery}, issn = {721}, author = {Ross Peacock and Baker, Patrick} } @article {bnh-8236, title = {Implications of climate change for emergency services operations - insights from the literature}, number = {699}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Greenhouse gas emissions to date and existing pledges for emissions reduction from national governments suggest that the world is tracking a medium emissions future at best, and possibly a high emission one. This report consolidates available knowledge of the potential impacts of climate change on key issues that influence the (emergency management services (EMS) in Australia and New Zealand, through a systematic review of the literature (both peer reviewed and grey literature) combined with an analysis of relevant inquiries. It is an output of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project entitled Preparing emergency services for a climate-challenged world.

For the EMS, one of the most immediate and visceral impacts of climate change is increasing frequency and severity of disaster-inducing natural hazards. Yet, it would be a mistake to assume that this is the extent of the challenge: interacting climatic, social, demographic and economic trends will result in transformations in our societies and way of life. For the EMS, the climate change adaptation challenge is more than just {\textquoteleft}more of the same{\textquoteright}. The increasingly significant impacts that climate change is having on the natural and human systems that support livelihoods and wellbeing in Australia and New Zealand present a profound challenge for all communities, businesses and services.

In the decades ahead, Australia is expected to experience increased warming across the whole of the continent with rainfall declines over much of the southern parts of the country very likely. These changes are not unfolding linearly. Already it is clear that the climate has altered over recent decades through a serious of step changes or {\textquoteleft}breaks{\textquoteright}. This means that current rates of change are an unreliable indicator of future rates of change.

Similarly, New Zealand is already registering warming and changing rainfall in some regions. These trends are expected to continue and include increasing average temperatures and more hot days for norther areas, significant shifts in rainfall patterns and more extreme rainfall, and profound increases in the time spent in drought by 2040. Sea level rise is also a major concern for the island nation, with sea level rise around New Zealand projected to be up to 10\% higher than the global average.

For Australia and New Zealand, climate change means more heatwaves, more extreme precipitation events, more bushfire weather, more storms, fewer but more intense cyclones, and more landslides. It also means more compound events and cascading impacts, where multiple extreme events occur simultaneously {\textendash} as was seen in Black Summer, where bushfires, heatwaves and floods were experienced during a long-term drought. Climate change is also increasing the risk that second and third order impacts of disasters, such as a disease outbreak following a flood, themselves cascade into another event of equal or greater severity.

Increasing frequency and severity of climatic hazards are intersecting with growing exposure and changing vulnerability patterns to drive disaster risk. Some of the desirable features of contemporary lifestyles {\textendash} such as high levels of consumption and technology-dependent, centralised systems {\textendash} are further increasing disaster risk. A no-regrets approach to climate change adaptation is\ to build {\textquoteleft}adaptive capacity{\textquoteright}, which is made up of five interlinked domains: assets, flexibility, social organisation, learning, and agency. Building adaptive capacity/reducing vulnerability requires looking beyond direct climate change impacts (e.g. managing heat) to address structural and systemic constraints on the ability of people and ecosystems to adapt to ongoing change, such as social inequalities, low environmental sustainability and poor governance.

Climate change adaptation incorporates a range of objectives and areas of effort. While it necessarily involves {\textquotedblleft}coping{\textquotedblright} at any moment in time, it also extends far beyond just coping to also better {\textquotedblleft}fit{\textquotedblright} emerging conditions and to proactively adjust to, and help positively shape, the future. Criteria of success of a climate change adaptation initiative include effectiveness, efficiency, equity, accounting for externalities, and having an extended time horizon. The inverse of good adaptation is maladaptation: actions that may lead to increased risk of adverse climate related outcomes, increased vulnerability to climate change, or diminished welfare, now or in the future.

Adaptation faces limits and barriers. As climate change worsens, it is likely impacts will exceed some systems{\textquoteright} and groups{\textquoteright} capacity to manage them. Uneven structural vulnerabilities and engrained issues such as downplaying climate change risks means some groups are continually or regularly unable to cope or adapt well. One of the risks of the {\textquotedblleft}shared responsibility{\textquotedblright} paradigm of disaster risk management in Australia is that {\textquoteleft}communities often are left to manage residual risks shifted towards individuals, whether or not they have the financial, physical, mental, or social capacity to manage them{\textquoteright}. It is often assumed that a lack of climate change information or adaptation knowledge is the main barrier to effective and timely adaptation action. While knowledge and information are important, analysis of barriers to adaptation suggests that institutional barriers (e.g. lack of clear mandate, roles, responsibilities, willingness to act) are often more significant.

One of the enablers of good climate change adaptation is systems thinking {\textendash} appreciating systemic relationships and how to manage them. When it comes to the EMS, a systems-based approach widens our understanding of the sector and the many implications of climate change for it. This report presents two frameworks that are useful for contextualising the EMS in a wider context, identifying how climate change might influence various elements of this system, and where the EMS can direct different types of adaptation strategies.

The academic literature provides some valuable insights into the drivers at work in the EMS context. However, very little research addresses the {\textquotedblleft}question of the future{\textquotedblright} per se and that which does, does not do so in a comprehensive manner that incorporates climate change or challenges the assumption that existing trends will unfold linearly. We therefore need to bring together different insights in order to piece together what the future may entail for the EMS. One useful way to begin this process is to systematically consider the {\textquoteleft}STEEP drivers{\textquoteright} - that is, insights into Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic and Policy/Political drivers {\textendash} and to then start thinking through how they may interact with climate change. In response to input from the scenarios team (the other part of this project), we have included a sixth category {\textendash} legal {\textendash} into the framework. This report provides examples of the types of changes and uncertainties the EMS may need to consider as it encounters the climate change adaptation undertaking.

We draw on the literature review to present analysis provided to the scenarios process. This includes a summary of biophysical impacts of climate change to 2035, including a plausible (but not predictive) climate hazard event map. We then summarise the likely flow-on effects to 2035 and finally the likely implications of those flow-on effects for water and environment, agriculture and aquaculture, infrastructure, human health and wellbeing, and society in general. Finally, we explore what adaptive capacity might look like under the four plausible futures developed by the scenarios team. In this way, the EMS has a comprehensive picture of what climate change impacts might influence them and what resources they might have to manage them.\ 

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {699}, author = {Lauren Rickards and Adriana Keating} } @article {bnh-8235, title = {Preparing emergency services for operations in a climate-challenged world - summary report}, number = {689}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

EMS agencies are learning to adapt and be prepared for futures where the changing climate will influence the services they deliver, and how they deliver those services. This research project was designed to help the sector to better prepare for these futures and take action to more quickly adapt as it unfolds, and importantly take action to shape the future in ways that reduce the risks of the hazards ahead.

In 2020 and 2021 this research project, under the stewardship of Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, collaborated with a select group of leaders and professionals (a scenario team) from across the Australia and New Zealand EMS. The research project was completed in three integrated parts:

  1. A synthesis of the literature conducted by RMIT on the implications of climate change for emergency services operation
  2. A series of participatory workshops with the project scenario team to develop an explorative and adaptable methodology that is then used to create transformative scenarios (2021-2035)
  3. Develop EMS guidance for using transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world for planning and decision-making in EMS.

By involving key people from across the EMS in the construction and application of the scenarios (the scenario team), this project has helped to build the sector{\textquoteright}s understanding and capabilities in scenario development and in scenario use and application. The project has not only strengthened the scenario thinking capability of the participants across a range of agencies, but secured positive support and endorsement from the scenario team who can continue to share and apply the project methods across the EMS.

A range of documents and resources are available from www.bnhcrc.com.au/research/climatescenarios. These include a workbook, and a research and methodology pack:

Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world {\textendash} workbook:

Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world {\textendash} research and methodology:\ 

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {689}, author = {Stephen Atkinson and Geoff Brown and Russell Fisher and Zoe Fitzgerald and Lauren Rickards and Adriana Keating} } @article {bnh-8232, title = {Transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world - a guide for using scenarios in the emergency management sector}, number = {708}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During 2020 and 2021, under the stewardship of Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australia and New Zealand emergency management sector (EMS) and related organisations worked together to better understand the driving forces in the world that interact to shape the future in unpredictable and volatile ways; ways that humans cannot reliably forecast or predict.

Using these driving forces, the team constructed a set of plausible futures that invite the EMS and the organisations within it to examine their current thinking about the future and challenge their existing assumptions. These scenarios explore what might happen over 2021-2035 in a climate-challenged world and how these futures might plausibly come about.

While this Guide references the breadth of ways in which scenarios can be applied in practice, the core purpose of this Guide is to outline one practical way for EMS organisations to start using these scenarios. The Guide outlines a simple, yet powerful way (wind tunnelling) for organisations to test and improve decision making and planning in an uncertain world where the volatility, frequency and magnitude of climate events will challenge the sector like never before. Experimenting with this {\textquotedblleft}wind tunnelling{\textquotedblright} approach and becoming familiar with its use in the context of one{\textquoteright}s own organisation, will provide leaders and decision-makers with the strategic insights required to strengthen and improve their strategy work and support their organisations to more effectively adapt to and influence the future.

This Guide is designed to be used in conjunction with the other documents in the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: workbook, which includes:

You will also need to access Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: research and methodology, which includes:\ \ 

All of these documents can be found here.

The Guide draws on the global experience of Reos Partners in developing and applying scenarios in many different contexts, the climate change research conducted for the project by RMIT University, the wisdom and hands-on experience of the sector-wide scenario team and a little bit of collective imagination.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {708}, author = {Reos Partners} } @article {bnh-8233, title = {Transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world - emergency management sector case studies as worked examples}, number = {710}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During 2020 and 2021, under the stewardship of BNHCRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australia and New Zealand emergency management sector (EMS) and related organisations worked together to better understand the driving forces in the world that interact to shape the future in unpredictable and volatile ways; ways that humans cannot reliably forecast or predict.

Using these driving forces, the team constructed a set of plausible futures that invite the EMS and the organisations within it to examine their current thinking about the future and challenge their existing assumptions. These scenarios explore what might happen over 2021-2035 in a climate-challenged world and how these futures might plausibly come about.

The purpose of Emergency management sector case studies as worked examples is to provide a {\textquoteleft}light{\textquoteright} version of a wind-tunneling process using four case examples from the perspective of different Emergency Service agency types:

  1. Urban firefighting services\  \  \  {\textquotedblleft}urban operations{\textquotedblright}
  2. Rural firefighting services\  \  \  \  {\textquotedblleft}rural operation{\textquotedblright}
  3. Land management agencies\  \  \ {\textquotedblleft}land management{\textquotedblright}
  4. State emergency services\  \  \  \  \ {\textquotedblleft}emergency services{\textquotedblright}

Abridged versions of four strategies or plans have been selected as {\textquoteleft}cases{\textquoteright} to illustrate the application of the wind-tunnelling process described in\ Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: a guide for using scenarios in the emergency management sector.

The cases are:

Case 1 {\textendash} Urban Operations: State Emergency Response Plan Extreme Heat Sub-Plan (2017)

Case 2 {\textendash} Rural Operations: Barwon South West Bushfire Management Strategy (2020)

Case 3 {\textendash} Land Management: City of Ipswich Floodplain Management Strategy (2019)

Case 4 {\textendash} Emergency Services: NZ Risk Reduction Strategy (2019-29)

The Case Studies draw on the experience of the sector-wide scenario team in developing the scenarios and have been designed to be used in conjunction with the other documents in the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: workbook, including:

You will also need to access Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: research and methodology, which includes:\ \ 

All of these documents can be found\ here.

Note that wind-tunnelling is a rigorous process requiring significant time and resources, and that these Case Studies are a {\textquoteleft}light{\textquoteright} version of a wind-tunnelling process developed for illustrative purposes only in order to show ways in which the worked examples may be tested and improved.

Note also that not every step in each worked example of the case studies has been fully completed. Parts have been deliberately left blank with an invitation for the reader to engage and complete the exercise. Again, what{\textquoteright}s provided is by way of example is for illustrative purposes only.

Finally, none of the results of wind-tunnelling provided here should be seen as a recommendation for any improvement to any of the strategies selected as EMS Case Studies.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {710}, author = {Reos Partners} } @article {bnh-8234, title = {Transformative scenarios in a climate challenged world - research methodology for scenario development}, number = {709}, year = {2021}, month = {10/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

During 2020 and 2021, under the stewardship of BNHCRC and AFAC and led by Reos Partners and RMIT University, a select group of leaders and professionals from across the Australia and New Zealand emergency management sector (EMS) and related organisations worked together to better understand the driving forces in the world that interact to shape the future in unpredictable and volatile ways; ways that humans cannot reliably forecast or predict.

Using these driving forces, the team constructed a set of plausible futures that invite the EMS and the organisations within it to examine their current thinking about the future and challenge their existing assumptions. These scenarios explore what might happen over 2021-2035 in a climate-challenged world and how these futures might plausibly come about.

This document presents the research methodology behind the development of the scenarios.

It is designed to be read in conjunction with the other documents in the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: workbook and the Transformative scenarios in a climate-challenged world: research and methodology pack, which includes:

All of these documents can be found\ here.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Emergency management, governance, Planning, Scenarios}, issn = {709}, author = {Reos Partners} } @article {bnh-6743, title = {Cascading extreme weather beyond our experience: are we ready?}, number = {547}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The 12th Australasian Natural Hazards\ Management Conference was a little\ different from what you might expect from\ a conference. It started with questions and worked through to a strategic view on\ whether we have the best knowledge to deal\ with the extreme hazards of our future that\ are of a nature and scale beyond our current\ experience.

As natural hazards continue to increase in frequency\ and severity, it is more important than ever to provide\ decision-makers with the evidence, information and\ tools to make the necessary critical decisions. As our\ demographics change, cities expand further into the\ bush and dependence on technology increases, our\ exposure to risk intensifies. The economic, social and\ environmental costs are forecasted to rise in a way that\ is unprecedented and unsustainable. These challenges\ are complex, and we should be wary of quick fix solutions.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC undertakes\ research with a vision that firmly imagines what we can\ do now to improve outcomes in the future. Our research\ explores what is possible and then develops evidence,\ knowledge and tools to help improve outcomes.

But the CRC is not a decision maker. The decision\ makers are governments, response agencies,\ organisations and communities. We all make choices\ and compromises: we make decisions on where to live,\ what to invest in and how prepared to be for the hazards\ we are familiar with and the ones we are yet to face {\textendash} the\ cascading, extreme hazards of our future.

This conference was an opportunity for us to explore the decisions available to us that can be made to reduce\ the impacts of these inevitable natural hazards. We\ drew together a diverse cross-section of industries\ that deal with natural hazards and provided them with\ opportunities to stretch their thinking beyond their\ current experiences. We invited them to contribute to\ the development of pathways\ to take research, knowledge\ and lessons into policy and\ practice.

To navigate the challenges of\ the changing risk profile in\ our region, we must act upon\ the knowledge generated\ through research and through\ the relationships cultivated at\ this conference. We encourage\ decision-makers at all levels\ to make courageous and creative choices to improve\ Australia{\textquoteright}s resilience.

The CRC draws together all of Australia and New\ Zealand{\textquoteright}s fire and emergency service authorities with\ the leading experts across a range of scientific fields\ to explore the causes, consequences and mitigation of\ natural disasters and, ultimately, contribute to a more\ disaster resilient Australia.

The 12th Australasian Natural Hazards Management\ Conference was integral to this process and this report\ provides a summary of the discussions to extend our\ collective strategic view into the coming years.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, Natural hazards, Planning, scenario}, issn = {547}, author = {John Bates} } @article {bnh-6744, title = {East Coast Low extreme weather scenario}, number = {548}, year = {2020}, month = {02/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fictional scenario developed for use at\ the 12th Australasian Natural Hazards\ Management Conference, developed in\ partnership with the Bureau of Meteorology,\ Geoscience Australia and Risk Frontiers. This\ scenario should be read in conjunction with\ the report on the 12th Australasian Natural\ Hazards Management Conference, Cascading\ extreme weather beyond our experience: are\ we ready?, published by the Bushfire and\ Natural Hazards CRC.

This scenario has been developed for the 12th\ Australasian Natural Hazards Management Conference.\ It is based on climate, environment and weather events\ that are plausible. The combination of events, locations,\ areas of impact and human behavior are not based on\ any real event.

As you see what unfolds during the scenario, we ask you\ to focus on the nature and scale of the events that are\ unfolding, and the connections between them. And to\ begin thinking {\textquoteleft}what could we do to reduce, minimise or\ avoid the short and long-term impacts?{\textquoteright}

The hypothetical event is based in New South Wales,\ but can, and should, be considered in the context of any\ equivalent location across Australia or New Zealand.\ 

The impacts capture a range of likely outcomes to\ illustrate the extent of the effects of the weather\ scenario, but do not attempt to catalogue all of the\ impacts and their extent.

}, keywords = {east coast low, extreme weather, Planning, scenario}, issn = {548}, author = {John Bates} } @book {bnh-6841, title = {Feeling the heat: International perspectives on the prevention of wildfire ignition}, series = {Series on Climate Change and Society}, year = {2020}, pages = {319}, publisher = {Vernon Press}, organization = {Vernon Press}, edition = {1st}, address = {Wilmington}, abstract = {

In the context of climate change, world population growth and crashing ecological systems, wildfire is often a catastrophic and traumatic event. Its impact can include loss of life, life-changing injuries, long-term psychological stress; increases in domestic violence; destruction of properties, business and livestock; long-term housing insecurity; increased insurance premiums, fire-fighting, legal and health costs; as well as significant changes and species losses in the natural environment.

}, keywords = {ignition, Planning, prevention, response, risk, Wildfire}, issn = {978-1-64889-010-9}, url = {https://vernonpress.com/book/890}, author = {Janet Stanley and Alan March and James Ogloff and James Thompson} } @article {bnh-7705, title = {Planning and capability requirements for catastrophic and cascading disasters - final project report}, number = {634}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Background

Planning and capability requirements for catastrophic and cascading disasters\ was a three-year research project focusing on the research questions of:

The research\ was based on literature reviews; interviews with representatives from emergency management organisations, businesses and community organisations; analysis of historical disaster loss data and content analysis of previous business contributions to disaster responses.

Findings

While\ a truly catastrophic disaster is by definition unmanageable, emergency managers can still help reduce loss of life and property and assist in sustaining the continuity of affected communities (Harrald, 2006). However, business-as-usual response strategies that work for smaller, more frequent events will not cut it in truly catastrophic circumstances. Often the success of the response is reliant upon the capacities already present in communities. Emergency managers must look to bolster these extant capacities.

Emergency services need to conceptualise how their service delivery models will have to adjust to the overwhelming demand for services and the complexity of catastrophes, including how they will anticipate and work with community first responders. Emergency management organisations must define capabilities they are best able to deliver in support of wider community efforts. For other capabilities, planners should look to community-based sources to supplement those available within government and consider altering service delivery standards.

Our results support existing well defined principles for disaster planning and risk reduction (Alexander, 2005): however, we found they are not effectively implemented to develop plans that consistently inform decision making. Planning is being inhibited by cultural, knowledge and resource constraints dominated by reactive response-oriented approaches.

There is a lack of knowledge regarding collective capability requirements and gaps to manage severe-to-catastrophic disasters. Unlike the defence forces, emergency services collectively lack a long-term view of capability\ requirements. There is need for a collective national view of future capability\ requirements to inform investment.

Severe-to-catastrophic disasters will require resources beyond the impacted\ jurisdiction. Although resources are already shared between jurisdictions, there is\ a need to bolster approaches for jurisdictions to work seamlessly together,\ including investments to enhance interoperability and to strengthen\ mechanisms of national coordination. The Commonwealth{\textquoteright}s role must also be\ defined by Commonwealth emergency management legislation as has\ previously been recommended (Eburn et al., 2019).

The need for strengthening national coordination arrangements is reinforced by\ analysis of historical compound disasters, which shows that it is possible for\ numerous concurrent or sequential severe disasters to occur across multiple\ jurisdictions, resulting in potential resource conflicts across jurisdictions.

Our research ultimately supports the principle of shared responsibility. The whole-of-community approach recognises that any severe-to-catastrophic disaster will\ involve whole-of-society responses. Despite the recognition of the value of\ businesses and community organisations in the National Strategy for Disaster\ Resilience, emergency management approaches are based on an inadequate\ view of community organisation and business capabilities and the culture\ remains largely government-centric.

Governments, whilst considering the lessons of previous disasters, must be\ proactive, forward looking and risk-based. Capability and capacity\ requirements for severe-to-catastrophic disasters will likely evolve into the future\ due to societal, environmental and technological changes. Technology offers\ significant opportunities to enhance capabilities.

Ultimately, our research supports the need for further efforts to mitigate disaster\ risk and build resilience, similar to recommendations of the Productivity\ Commission and APRA.

Utilisation\ 

The\ project adopted a collaborative approach with end-users assisting to define\ research questions and utilisation outputs. A key utilisation output from the\ research has been an emergency management capability maturity assessment\ tool that can be utilised by jurisdictions and organisations to better understand\ potential capability gaps in the context of severe-to-catastrophic disaster\ scenarios. Through utilisation funding provided by the Bushfire and Natural\ Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, this tool will be promoted for use across\ all jurisdictions.

Following analysis of emergency management legislation, a model\ Commonwealth Emergency Management Act was drafted for consideration by\ end-users.

Outcomes of the research were presented as evidence to the 2020 Royal Commission\ into National Natural Disaster Arrangements.

}, keywords = {Capability, cascading, Catastrophic, disasters, Planning}, issn = {634}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Steve George and Michael Eburn and John McAneney and Matthew Timms and Stuart Browning} } @article {bnh-6809, title = {Planning and capability requirements for catastrophic and cascading disasters}, number = {557}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Catastrophic events pose unique challenges and are inevitable. Previous reviews have highlighted gaps in Australia{\textquoteright}s preparedness for catastrophic disasters. Australia has no recent experience of a catastrophe, with the Spanish Flu (1918-19) and Cyclone Tracey (1974) being perhaps two historic examples that have overwhelmed systems of management. Catastrophic events require the adoption of a whole community approach. However, this is challenged by the culture of emergency services and wider community apathy. This report provides insights into the preparedness for catastrophic disasters based upon a review of the global literature. Implications for practitioners are discussed to assist in strengthening capability and capacity to reduce the likelihood of becoming overwhelmed.

}, keywords = {Capability, cascading disasters, Catastrophic, Planning}, issn = {557}, author = {Andrew Gissing and Michael Eburn and John McAneney} } @article {bnh-7739, title = {Scenario planning for remote community risk management in northern Australia - final project report}, number = {636}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The {\textquoteleft}Scenario planning for remote community risk management in northern Australia{\textquoteright} project is part of CDU{\textquoteright}s northern hub second round suite of projects, commencing in July 2017. The hub involves collaborations between the Darwin Centre for Bushfire Research (DCBR) at Charles Darwin University (CDU), the North Australia Indigenous Land \& Sea Management Alliance Ltd (NAILSMA), the Aboriginal Research Practitioners Network (ARPNet) also based at CDU, and regional stakeholders including north Australian Fire and Emergency Management agencies, conservation agencies and remote Indigenous communities. In this report, we provide summaries of the work undertaken over the project period in the two main components of the Northern hub{\textquoteright}s scenario planning project.

Firstly, we have been developing a framework for the Fire \& Emergency Services agencies to engage with remote Indigenous communities to potentially improve Emergency Services delivery. The agencies recognise the need to improve the services provided remotely, but also recognise that\  some jurisdictions (particularly the NT) are\  not adequately resourced to achieve this,. The classic model of volunteering does not suit remote significantly disadvantaged Indigenous community members in remote communities. However, the expanding Indigenous Ranger program is a potential means to more appropriately engage with local Indigenous people to build local emergency management (EM) capacity, preparedness, resilience and disaster response.

This research has developed\  a suite of case studies. In each case,\  interviews/workshops have been conducted with members of the, now, wide-spread Indigenous Ranger Groups (IRGs) to ascertain the aspirations, willingness and capacity of the Indigenous Rangers to engage in EM activities. In this report, we provide summaries of the activities undertaken and information gathered to date at Hermannsberg and Yuendumu in Central Australia, Broome, Beagle Bay and Bidyadanga in the Kimberley, Galiwinku on Elcho Island off Arnhem Land, in Bulukhuduru, Ramingining and Ngukkurr in Arnhem Land, and Borroloola on the Gulf of Carpentaria. Main identified issues across the selected remote communities include little engagement of locals, if any, in managing emergency situations around the community, inappropriate placement of EM plans in police stations, lack of resoruces and services in remote communities, broader recognition of IRGs capacity to deliver EM services, and willingness of IRGs to participate in EM services.

Secondly, this research continues the service delivery program of land management, monitoring and evaluation tools to assist fire managers in remote north Australia. To develop {\textquotedblleft}Improved Fire Management Regimes{\textquotedblright}, we provide information with respect to the spatial distribution, and effects of fires on tropical savanna and rangeland habitats through the Savanna Monitoring \& Evaluation Reporting Framework (SMERF). In particular, we include the development of a fire severity map product, not only to inform land management, but to improve Savanna Burning greenhouse gas emissions calculations.

Finally, this report addresses ongoing priorities identified by partner agencies and community stakeholders requiring further action-based research and implementation, especially addressing:

}, keywords = {northern Australia, Planning, remote community, risk management, scenario}, issn = {636}, author = {Jeremy Russell-Smith and Kamaljit Sangha and Andrew C. Edwards} } @conference {bnh-6513, title = {Future risk framework: understanding tomorrow{\textquoteright}s risk and what we can do to reduce it}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Unless appropriate mitigation action is taken, disaster risk is likely to increase into the future due to factors such as climate change, population growth, economic development and an ageing population. Consequently, there is a pressing need to think about plausible future risks and how to best mitigate them. This paper presents the future risk framework, which provides a structured, stepwise approach for relevant agencies to explore future risk and what it means for their organisation. The framework consists of four main steps, progressively increasing in levels of insight into future risk, as well as increasing the level of quantification of risk. A key feature of the framework is the incorporation of sense-making and its implementation consists of a combination of participatory approaches and the use of data, information, modelling and analysis. Application of the framework is illustrated for the case study of Greater Adelaide, South Australia, highlighting the approaches used and the level of insight into future risk obtained at each of the four stages. A discussion on the challenges associated with using this insight to mitigate future risk is also provided, suggesting that a collaborative, multidisciplinary, multi-agency approach is needed to effectively mitigate all aspects of future risk, especially those associated with increases in exposure and vulnerability.\ 

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Disaster risk, mitigation, Planning, risk management, risk reduction}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Holger Maier and Aaron Zecchin and Roel Vanhout and James Daniell and Sofanit Araya and Graeme Dandy and Jeffrey Newman} } @article {bnh-6236, title = {Integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation: annual report 2018-2019}, number = {522}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This document reports on the carried-out activities, achieved milestones, and submitted deliverables for the second year of operation of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Integrated Urban Planning for Natural Hazard Mitigation project {\textendash} 1st July 2018 to 30th June 2019. It contrasts achieved and planned outcomes and explains the necessary adjustments carried out to date. It starts by offering a background to the project, followed by considerations to the research approach being undertaken and then an explanation of the project implementation in greater detail and its utilisation outputs. This Year 2 {\textendash} 2018-2019 report will be followed by one final annual report to be submitted in mid-2020. In parallel to annual reports, this research project generates quarterly reports that further detail its operation every three months, as well as yearly self-assessment matrices. On the 30th of June 2020, a final report summarising key research project outcomes will also be submitted.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, future, integrating, mitigation, Planning, urban}, issn = {522}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes} } @article {bnh-6038, title = {Path dependency of the development contributions system}, journal = {Planning News}, volume = {45}, year = {2019}, month = {02/2019}, abstract = {

Clause 19 of the Victoria Planning Provisions (VPP) outlines the importance of planning for the timely delivery of social and physical infrastructure, and states that planning authorities should consider the use of infrastructure contributions to assist in achieving this. Infrastructure contributions have been collected in Victoria for some time, but it was not until 1995 that the Development Contributions Plan (DCP) system became legislated in the Planning and Environment Act. This legislation was prompted by a landmark legal case in a greenfield setting known as the {\textquoteright}Eddie Barron decision{\textquoteright} which resulted in the principles of need, nexus, equity and accountability forming the basis of the way in which development contributions are collected in Victoria. The introduction of the Infrastructure Contributions Plan (ICP) system in October 2016 was the first significant change to the way in which development contributions are collected since this legislation was introduced. The ICP currently applies to metropolitan greenfield settings, the application of the system in regional growth areas and strategic development areas is yet to be resolved.

}, keywords = {development, Infrastructure, Planning}, url = {https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=180596462251061;res=IELBus}, author = {Emily Killin and Alan March} } @article {bnh-4690, title = {Bushfire Preparedness, Planning, and Response among Animal Guardians: A South Australian Case Study}, journal = {PLOS Current Disasters}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, abstract = {

Animal ownership has been identified as a risk factor for human survivability of natural disasters. Animal guardians have been reported to react or act in ways that may put their own safety and that of emergency services personnel at risk when faced with a natural disaster. Recent research has suggested that this risk factor could be reconfigured as a protective factor, whereby desires to save animals from natural disaster harm could motivate increased planning and preparedness behaviours amongst animal guardians. However, there has been no research to determine if bushfire planning and response behaviours differ between pet owners with low and high attachment; and how the relationship may differ in relation to small or large animals. Methods and procedure: We investigated the relationship between people{\textquoteright}s emotional attachment to different types of pets and their preparation and actions during the Pinery bushfire in South Australia in November 2015. Thirty-four people who were impacted by the fire participated in an online survey. Data were collected about their preparedness, planning and response behaviours as well as their animal attachment (high or low). Results: We identified 10 characteristics (behaviours, attributes, skills and beliefs) associated with high animal attachment scores, and eight associated with low animal attachment scores. Discussion: Our discussion of the differences in demographics, preparedness, planning and response characteristics of participants with high and low animal attachment confirms research suggesting that animal guardians take risks to save their animals during disasters. Our findings also support recent propositions that animal attachment and ownership could be used to increase the natural disaster preparedness and survivability of animal guardians. However, making sure that animal attachment functions as a protective factor requires active and effective intervention through education, behaviour change and social marketing strategies. Whilst our study is high in ecological validity, future research with larger samples sizes is required to determine the generalisability of our findings to animal owners and guardians in other locations, facing fires with other characteristics, especially for owners and guardians with low levels of attachment.

}, keywords = {animals, disasters, Emergency management, Planning, Preparedness, response.}, doi = {10.6084}, url = {http://currents.plos.org/disasters/article/bushfire-preparedness-planning-and-response-among-animal-guardians-a-south-australian-case-study/}, author = {O{\textquoteright}Dwyer, Lisel and Kirrilly Thompson} } @article {bnh-4572, title = {Can major post-event inquiries and reviews contribute to lessons management?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, chapter = {34}, abstract = {

Significant disaster and emergency management events are invariably followed by formal post-event inquiries and reviews. Such reviews identify lessons to improve future capacities and set the agenda for policy and management reform for emergency management organisations. As a result, there is a substantial body of reflections and recommendations gathered across all hazard types and jurisdictions by formal, structured inquiry processes that contribute to lessons management for the emergency sector. However, whether there is any coherence or core lessons emerging for the Australian sector from the totality of postevent inquiries is unknown. The work reported here identifies the recommendations from these inquiries. A meta-analysis of 1336 recommendations made in 55 Australian major post-event reviews and inquiries since 2009 revealed common themes. The recommendations were compiled into a comprehensive database and categorised into 32 themes. The analysis highlighted recurrent themes from recommendations spanning multiple jurisdictions. The study indicates the potential value for Australian and New Zealand emergency management agencies and jurisdictions of using the aggregate data organised as a resource for lessons management.

}, keywords = {commission, communication, emergency management., lessons management, Planning, post-disaster, review, risk}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jan-2018-can-major-post-event-inquiries-and-reviews-contribute-to-lessons-management/}, author = {Dovers, Steve} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5391, title = {Improving adaptation planning for future sea level rise and coastal flooding}, year = {2018}, school = {University of Tasmania}, address = {Hobart}, abstract = {

Sea level rise has the potential to exacerbate coastal flooding around the world, causing more frequent extreme sea levels, nuisance flooding and permanent inundation. Projecting diverse physical, environmental and socio-economic impacts to coastal communities across multi-decadal timeframes is vital for informed adaptation planning. However, this is increasingly uncertain and challenged by conflicting stakeholder priorities.

This thesis develops an interdisciplinary approach to advance the planning of long-term adaptation pathways in the context of coastal flood risk management. Utilising three case studies in south-east Australia, it combines the strengths of robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) {\textendash} both prominent tools to support decision-making under conditions of uncertainty {\textendash} together with solicited values-based information to make three novel advances towards flexible adaptation pathways planning.

First, this thesis combines the strengths of RDM and DAPP for planning adaptation pathways by using scenario discovery to provide a multi-dimensional description of adaptation tipping points. The scenario discovery process uses an existing cluster finding algorithm to identify future conditions where adaptation policies no longer keep flood risk at tolerable levels. Combining RDM and DAPP is a novel approach in coastal flood risk management and scenario discovery provides greater visibility on the physical factors driving adaptation tipping points. Second, values-based information is integrated into the adaptation planning process in an attempt to consider subjective social and cultural impacts from coastal flooding. In this regard, the novel combination and explanatory value of lived and landscape values is investigated. Consideration of these more intangible effects are often omitted in coastal adaptation planning but can contribute to more informed adaptation decisions. Third, the combined RDM and DAPP method developed uses both geographic information system (GIS) software and open source programming tools to analyse flood impacts. This improves the usability and relevance of a combined RDM and DAPP approach, enabling the efficient redeployment and customisation of the method to suit different location-specific needs. Such an approach also provides a lower cost entry point for local government agencies to begin planning coastal adaptation pathways.

Each of these advances combine to provide a framework that improves the way coastal adaptation pathways are planned and developed. The findings elucidated from the case studies show how a combined RDM and DAPP approach can account for spatial and temporal interactions between hazard, exposure and vulnerability flood risk factors, which improves the way robustness is measured for adaptation policy options. Values-based approaches can shape the selection of adaptation objectives, improve the design of options, support the evaluations of adaptation pathways and inform monitoring systems. The resultant adaptation pathways framework can support local government in planning sustainable strategies to manage long-term flood impacts. This has global applications for coastal flood risk management that will become increasingly important throughout the coming century.

}, keywords = {adaptation, Climate change, coastal flooding, decision-making, Planning, risk, sea level rise, uncertainty}, url = {https://eprints.utas.edu.au/29624/}, author = {Timothy Ramm} } @article {BF-4287, title = {The effect of patch area on birds in central Australian Mulga ({\textquoteright}acacia aneura{\textquoteright}) woodland of different times-since-fire}, journal = {Pacific Conservation Biology}, volume = {19}, year = {2013}, month = {03/2013}, pages = {28-38}, chapter = {28}, abstract = {It is often assumed that a fine-scaled mosaic of different times-since-fire supports greater biodiversity than a coarsescaled mosaic - the fire mosaic hypothesis. A potential mechanism of the fire mosaic hypothesis is the effect of area on species diversity. We investigated the effect of patch area on bird communities in mulga (Acacia aneura) woodland in central Australia. The study was conducted at Uluru Kata-Tjuta National Park using 55 fixed-area sites classified to the time since last fire: burnt 2002; burnt 1976 and long unburnt. Birds were surveyed in the winter and spring of 2005 and 2006. Of 20 key species, two showed a positive density-area effect (i.e. higher density in larger patches). Patch area did not affect total bird density or species richness. However, species turnover ( -diversity) was greater in large patches in the burnt 2002 treatment than it was in small patches. There was no effect of patch area on the composition of the bird communities in any of the time-since-fire classes. We concluded that patch area did affect the distribution of some birds in mulga woodland. However, patch area was not a mechanism of the fire mosaic hypothesis because the effects of patch size tended to increase avian diversity in larger patches rather than small.}, keywords = {Biodiversity conservation, Bird surveys, Landscape protection, Planning}, issn = {1038-2097}, url = {http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=431001814188300;res=IELHSS}, author = {Adam J. Leavesley and Geoffrey J. Cary} }