@article {bnh-7889, title = {Optimisation of fuel reduction burning regimes for fuel reduction, carbon, water and vegetation outcomes {\textendash} final project report}, number = {648}, year = {2021}, month = {03/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Fire managers often have multiple objectives for a given prescribed burn centred around risk reduction and conservation of biodiversity. The ability to predict the effects of prescribed burning on the capacity of forests to deliver ecosystem services such as clean air, carbon sequestration, and a reliable and high-quality supply of water is becoming increasingly more important.

The body of research detailed in this Synthesis Report represents a concerted effort to understand the effect of prescribed burning on water quantity and carbon losses and gains in forested ecosystems in south-eastern Australia. We collected empirical data from over 100 sampling sites treated with a recent prescribed burn. The sampling strategy we used was consistent over time with target sampling variables included for estimation of overstorey and understorey biomass and direct sampling of surface and near surface fuel loads. Site selection was stratified to accommodate as much site variability as possible and to take full advantage of prescribed burn plans.

Data collected from the field was used in a variety of modelling assignments to capture the effect of prescribed burning on changes in water availability and transformation of carbon pools. Using a mixture of models and empirical sampling and analysis, we showed that there are few risks to long-term carbon and water cycles when prescribed burning is conducted on cycles of 10 or so years. Critical to this analysis is the frequency of bushfires {\textendash} if the inter-fire interval of unplanned fires becomes short (e.g., \<50 years) then ecosystem losses of carbon and reductions in water yield are likely to become semi-permanent features.

Our modelling endeavours ranged from relatively complex process-based models describing water and carbon balances through to simple response surface models. By exploring the transformation of carbon pools in surface fuels during prescribed burning, we developed robust yet simple-to-use models for predicting changes in total carbon and biomass in this fuel fraction. The novel application of FullCAM, a well-established model used for carbon accounting, was tested for its ability to incorporate often subtle changes in forest growth and carbon transformation associated with prescribed burning. We found this model to be relatively sensitive and recommend it to fire managers for applications such as estimation of carbon emissions. Based on our key findings, we advocate for continued research and evidence-based application of prescribed burning as a valuable land management approach.

Data assembled from peer-reviewed publications and researchers worldwide was mined for changing trends in publications concerning prescribed burning, global patterns of litterfall and standing litter, and water use efficiency of forests. These summative studies informed our research direction and chartered our progress.

A considerable number of student projects have been supported during the course of this project contributing to the training of the next generation of researchers and land managers.

}, keywords = {burning regimes, carbon, fuel reduction, optimisation, vegetation, water}, issn = {648}, author = {Bell, Tina and Adams, Mark A. and Mathias Neumann and Danica Parnell and David Pepper and Malcolm Possell} } @article {bnh-6567, title = {Simulation optimisation for natural hazard risk management}, number = {533}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we outline a decision-support framework for natural hazard management that combines the use of simulation and optimisation for exploring what risk reduction measures best achieve management priorities. This framework addressed several needs that practitioners have with regard to risk and adaptation assessment. First, it uses optimisation approaches to screen through and identify those management options that perform best across a number of decision criteria. This is important, as there are a very diverse range of management options which could be combined in an extremely large number of ways to make portfolios of management options and it is difficult to screen through all potential portfolios to shortlist a small number for further consideration. Second, it simulates the effectiveness of management options over long-term planning horizons. This is important, for management options may have long lead-in-times, and/or may have long lifetimes, are not easily/readily changed, and so need to be effective over a broad range of plausible future conditions, which likely include larger populations, increased economic development and climate change. Third, the framework emphasises holistic assessment, wherein the Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) simulates the effect of management options across a number of criteria, therefore allowing practitioners to explore the trade-offs between risk reduction with other community goals, including environmental, social and economic outcomes.


The value of this framework arises from the greater demands that are being placed on planners to effectively manage natural hazard risk, whether from politicians or from the public who have an increasingly reduced appetite for hazard losses. This creates a need for analytic frameworks for exploring how to best manage risk, and this framework addresses this gap.


Through application to a case study, this report shows how the framework is able to increase the effectiveness and efficiency by which IAM can be applied to natural hazard risk management. The role of the optimisation was seen not to be prescriptive, but to enable better exploration of risk management options. The framework was therefore able to provide rich information on the effectiveness of management portfolios by which better risk management plans could be formed.


The case study to which the framework was applied considered coastal flood risk within Greater Adelaide and explored the combinations of zonal exclusion areas along the coast which prevented further development. If unmitigated, coastal risk could increase by 10\% over the next three decades. However, results of the case study application showed that zonal exclusion policies could effectively reduce this growth of coastal risk, however this required excluding further development from 7000 Ha of land along the coast. Saying that, the growth in risk could be limited to 3\% (i.e. a reduction in growth by 60\%), through excluding coastal development from only 1500 Ha.

}, keywords = {natural hazard, optimisation, risk management, simulation}, issn = {533}, author = {Jeffrey Newman and Graeme Dandy and Aaron Zecchin and Hedwig van Delden and Charles Newland and Holger Maier and Graeme Riddell} } @article {bnh-6307, title = {Demographic profiling: Queensland floods 2010-11 Brisbane River catchment area case study}, number = {527}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we provide some high-level demographic profiling and descriptive analysis of the Queensland Flood 2010-11 flood-affected Brisbane River catchment local government areas (LGAs):\ 

The profiling utilises the ABS Census as the primary data source (in line with project\ methodology) as well as official government reports for flood-related statistics.\ In presenting this information, we note that our demographic rofiling captures\ the overall population-level trends for these areas, which are affected by factors\ including migration and population growth. This enables us to present a baseline\ of the overall socioeconomic characteristics and conditions of these areas both\ prior to (2006) and post the floods (2011, 2016).\ This report is part of a series of demographic profiling reports which will be\ released for each of the project case studies.

}, keywords = {Brisbane river, economic impact, Emergency management, flood safety, Floods, optimisation, risk analysis}, issn = {527}, author = {Farah Beaini and Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-6293, title = {Demographic profiling: Western Australia Toodyay bushfires 2009 case study}, number = {526}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

In this report, we provide some high-level demographic profiling and descriptive analysis of the Shire of Toodyay, a small town in the Western Australian Wheatbelt region that was devastated by bushfires on 29 December 2009.

The profiling utilises the ABS Census as the primary data source (in line with project methodology), at either a SA2 or local government area (LGA) level, depending on available information. It also relies on official government reports for fire related statistics.

In presenting this information, we note that our demographic profiling captures the overall population-level trends, which are affected by factors including migration and population growth. This enables us to present a baseline of the overall socioeconomic characteristics and conditions of Toodyay both prior to (2006) and post the fires (2011, 2016).

This report is part of a series of demographic profiling reports which will be released for each of the project case studies.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, optimisation, post-disaster, recovery, risk analysis}, issn = {526}, author = {Farah Beaini and Mehmet Ulubasoglu} } @article {bnh-6281, title = {Optimisation of fuel reduction burning regimes for fuel reduction, carbon, water and vegetation outcomes}, number = {525}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We have made significant progress in several areas of research over the past 12 months. This has included modelling of carbon emissions from prescribed fires using (a) regression modelling to couple the effect of prescribed fire on water and carbon at a catchment scale, and (b) FullCAM, a process-based model that can track carbon pools in forests systems. The latter is a readily accessible tool that has very good potential to be adopted by End User agencies when required to report on carbon emissions resulting from their efforts to manage fuels. A fuel condition model (the {\textquoteleft}litter triangle{\textquoteright}) detailing carbon load and fuel reduction has been developed for surface fuels in dry sclerophyll forest. This is an easy-to-use tool that can be used as a guide for estimating potential for carbon loss due to prescribed burning. We are in an exciting phase of End User utilisation and tangible uses for our research has been identified and are being pursued. Reporting on our progress has taken the form of milestone reports, bi-monthly newsletters directed towards our End Users, and presentations for local, national and international forums. We have endeavoured to meet regularly with our primary End User and have established collaborations with research groups such as CSIRO and local land managers from NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service. Our vision for the next 12 months is to consolidate our research in the area of estimating carbon emissions from prescribed fires, modelling of carbon and water across the landscape for optimisation of planned burning and linking metrics describing combustion of surfaces fuels with fire severity.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, fuel reduction, optimisation, planned burning, safety}, issn = {525}, author = {Bell, Tina} }