@article {bnh-8215, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk {\textendash} Melbourne case study}, number = {707}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Earthquake hazard was not fully recognised in Australian building design until the mid-1990{\textquoteright}s. This oversight has resulted in a legacy of vulnerable buildings that can be readily damaged in moderate to severe Australian earthquakes. In particular, older unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings built with the architectural styles, materials and construction details used in the United Kingdom are particularly vulnerable. Australian earthquakes have highlighted the vulnerability of this building type. These events include the Adelaide Earthquake of 1954, the Meckering Earthquake of 1968, the Newcastle Earthquake of 1989 and the Kalgoorlie Earthquake of 2010, all of which damaged pre WWII masonry buildings in particular.\  Buildings of this style are present in the older centres of our major cities, and Melbourne has a very significant number of these. As shown in this research, in number nearly half of the buildings in the Melbourne central business district are of this type of construction. The damage to these buildings can greatly add to human casualties as a result of falling masonry elements. Further, the severity of damage and losses can impede the recovery of cities like Melbourne physically, economically and socially. Finally, many of these buildings have heritage value to communities that residents may want preserved.

This document reports on the final deliverable for Project A9 Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre (CRC). It builds on the masonry component research of the University of Adelaide in this project and is a milestone for Geoscience Australia. The work follows the utilisation project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Earthquake Mitigation of WA Regional Towns: York Case Study{\textquotedblright}, that was jointly delivered by GA and the University of Adelaide. The utilisation project developed original condition and mitigated vulnerability models for six URM building types. In this project, these outcomes have been applied to the much larger Melbourne CBD exposure.

The project had the following key components:

The work required the development of the three fundamental risk elements of earthquake hazard, community exposure and building vulnerability. It also entailed the assessment of the economic loss measures associated with human injury, contents losses, rental income, commercial property leasing, and business activity. Additionally, it included the application of the semi-intangible value placed on human life to society. Each of these are described below.

Earthquake hazard

This study has drawn upon the latest understanding of the Melbourne region earthquake hazard by utilising the recently released National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA 2018) (Allen et al, 2018a). The bedrock hazard from this assessment shows Melbourne to have a {\textquotedblleft}low{\textquotedblright} earthquake hazard by global standards but significant by Australian standards. The hazard is further amplified by the presence of the sediments deposited by the Yarra River.\  These soil effects increase the hazard, particularly those in the study region south of the Yarra River. The effects of soil amplification can double the severity of shaking in some areas.

Community exposure

The definition of the building assets in the study region utilised several sources. The available state government building data integrated into the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) was accessed and supplemented by an engineering survey database developed and maintained by GA for the Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation. This was further refined by a desktop review of all masonry buildings utilising available street level imagery. In total there were 1,543 buildings in the study region, and 687 of these were identified as URM.

The assessment of human activity was achieved by utilising research undertaken outside of this project. This research utilised a population model developed by downscaling a destination zone based telecommunication model with pedestrian counts, the Melbourne traffic control systems movement counts, and building floor area information. Using this work it was possible to define the local human exposure at the time of the scenario event, particularly those in damaged buildings and those potentially exposed to falling masonry during a rapid onset earthquake event.

Building vulnerability

The building vulnerability assessment work for the URM building stock was a direct utilisation of the six vulnerability types identified in the earlier York WA mitigation study. This included the vulnerability in present condition, and that with mitigation measures applied to the vulnerable elements. To complete the context, the vulnerability of other building types was attributed using a suite of models developed through an adaptation of US HAZUS models, reference to \ heuristically developed models from a GA facilitated UN workshop (Maqsood et al, 2014), and through heuristic adjustments by the project team. This vulnerability of non-URM buildings remained a constant in the study as mitigation of these buildings was not considered.

Economics of cost assessment

The economic assessment considered a broad range of measures. These ranged from the direct costs to property owner, building occupiers, and businesses through to health care costs and the partially intangible value placed on the loss of a human life. The aim was to provide scalable information on benefits versus cost to a range of decision makers and investors. Importantly, the measures where not comprehensive and so represent a lower bound to the actual avoided impacts mitigation achieves. For example, the cost of emergency response, clean-up and community recovery support were not considered. Neither was a macro-economic perspective developed to capture non-impacted businesses that would benefit from a stimulus in business activity such as in the construction industry, the supply of home appliances, soft furnishings and drapery. Significantly, the value of avoided heritage building loss was considered through the utilisation of metrics developed by a UWA led CRC project.

Scenario impacts and risks

The study considered a single rare earthquake scenario having an annual likelihood of 1/5,000 of causing the targeted bedrock shaking severity beneath the Melbourne CBD, or greater. This likelihoods corresponds with a 1\%, chance of this shaking severity being exceeded in the next 50 years. For the event the injuries and other losses within the scope of this study were assessed using the human exposure corresponding with 11:00am of Monday through to Thursday. The losses ranged from $737m for building damage only, through to $1.66b for the other monetary costs considered.\  The value of human life lost increased this to $3.97b. Where 25\% of the masonry building stock was retrofitted, over 30 years, these losses reduced by approximately 16\%.

The reduction in injuries if this event occurred in 30 years time was also evaluated. Serious injuries reduced by 16 and deaths by 98 persons. Urban Search and Rescue logistics would also reduce correspondingly.

In a similar manner, the long term financial risk of the Melbourne CBD study region was evaluated for building damage. It was presented as the average annualised loss for the URM building stock and for the entire study region buildings. It was also forecast 30 years into the future and the financial risk reduced by 38\% for the URM building stock and by 10\% across the entire study region buildings.

Discussion and outcomes

Earthquakes occur frequently in Australia with over 100 events greater than magnitude 3.0 (ML) recorded within the Australian continent every year by Geoscience Australia. The smaller and more frequent events are typically non-damaging, whereas the less frequent larger events can be very damaging when they occur close to a community. This plays out in the economics of strengthening older structures where the benefits of avoided building damage and contents losses through retrofit for earthquake are not a full offset for the significant costs.\  Other avoided costs associated with business losses, lost wages, health care costs, and the value placed on human life, do increase the sum significantly but are not realised by the property owner. While not all avoided costs were considered, this project indicates that the justification for retrofit based solely on a financial investment may be difficult to demonstrate for URM buildings in Melbourne.

As was also illustrated by the earlier York study, there are other considerations for the retrofit of URM buildings in the Melbourne CBD and in other older business districts in the city. If a rare earthquake occurred locally during a period of high public exposure there would be considerable loss of life. This research has shown that if a 5,000 year Return Period (RP) event (5.5 Mw) occurring on a business day approximately 100 people would die with close parallels to the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake outcome for masonry structures (42 fatalities). This may point to cheaper levels of retrofit with the objective of tying back elements that could cause casualties, rather than having the aim of avoiding economic loss.

Further, following a rare, but credible, earthquake high value heritage buildings would be lost. The research has shown that the willingness to pay by just the residents of the City of Melbourne LGA adds a notional 10\% of the total benefits of the mitigation program.

SUMMARY

The project has applied a range of retrofit measures for a suite of six URM building types developed as part of Project A9 to a very large population of URM building found in the Melbourne CBD. These measures have been demonstrated to reduce the physical vulnerability of each building. The project has also translated this vulnerability change into broader metrics that form an evidence base to inform decisions to retrofit.

The project has also demonstrated the benefit of retrofit through a virtual retrofit of a major city CBD. These benefits include reduced post event logistics for emergency management and the local government, reducing financial losses to building owners, businesses, and reducing injuries and fatalities. It has also demonstrated that retrofit reduces the long term financial cost of earthquake hazard, thereby making risk transfer through insurance uptake more affordable. Finally, it has demonstrated how valuable heritage structures can be progressively preserved for the future by protecting them from future credible earthquakes.

}, keywords = {buildings, earthquake, Melbourne, mitigation, risk, strategy}, issn = {707}, author = {Hyeuk Ryu and Martin Wehner and Jaroslav Vaculik and Valdis Juskevics and Mark Edwards and Michael Griffith and Itismita Mohanty and Stuart Butt and Neil Corby and Trevor Allen and Robert Hewison} } @article {bnh-7952, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk - final project report}, number = {657}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This final report contains a summary of the research undertaken by the research team from four partner institutions towards the development of an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the seismic risk posed by the most vulnerable Australian buildings subject to earthquakes.\  Without this evidence base, it is impossible to make cost-effective and economically justifiable decisions by building owners and government officials on all matters concerning seismic strengthening of existing and design of new buildings.\  While the focus of this project is on buildings, many of the project outputs will also be relevant for other Australian infrastructure such as bridges, roads and ports, while at the same time complementing other {\textquoteleft}Natural Hazards{\textquoteright} CRC project proposals for severe wind and flood.\ 

In order to achieve the overall project aim, work was undertaken on three complementary fronts to:

  1. Understand the seismic vulnerabilities of existing unreinforced masonry (URM) and limited ductile reinforced concrete (LDRC) buildings and methods to address them through seismic retrofit;
  2. Risk assessment of the building stock through development of an economic loss model with trial evaluations for a regional town (York, WA) and a metropolitan area (Melbourne); and
  3. Advance an end-user focused research utilisation project in the area of community risk reduction. This is done through an Earthquake Mitigation Case Study for the historic town of York in Western Australia.

The first of the above components was researched in the Universities of Adelaide, Melbourne, and Swinburne. This work included investigations of existing building seismic capacities and development of building specific retrofit techniques. The second area was studied by Geoscience Australia and the work includes estimating direct and indirect losses associated with building damage and benefits from seismic retrofit.\  The delivery date for the Melbourne CBD trial evaluation was delayed due to Covid-19 impacts but the revised delivery date of March 2021 has been agreed by the CRC. The last component was conducted utilizing the research findings in the two other areas in collaboration with the Western Australia Department of Fire and Emergency Services, York Shire Council and its residents.

Finally, using the new damage loss models and costings for seismically retrofitting buildings, recommendations are made for the development of seismic retrofit guidelines and policy based on the strong evidence base being developed by this CRC project team.

As a consequence, the project has been extremely successful with several end-users implementing the research outputs.\  York Shire Council has embarked on seismic retrofit of up to three buildings in the Shire as demonstrations to other building owners of the cost-effectiveness as well as helping to develop the local expertise amongst the building profession to implement these simple seismic strengthening techniques.\  The project has also resulted in a follow-on project in Western Australia to expand the building typologies from York to include three additional typologies that are common in the rest of WA.\  The retrofit strategies for all nine typologies will be made publically available through web sites.

}, keywords = {buildings, cost-effective, earthquake, mitigation, risk, strategy}, issn = {657}, author = {Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-7824, title = {Flood risk communication - final project report}, number = {645}, year = {2021}, month = {01/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The context for the research

The\ focus of this research project was informed by the findings of earlier BNHCRC research that investigated human fatalities from natural disasters (Haynes et al., 2017). This project focused on the two behaviours most frequently associated with flood fatalities:

  1. Driving into floodwater in a motor vehicle, and
  2. Recreating in floodwater.

Although there were pockets of information and more detailed knowledge about these behaviours held in some jurisdictions, there was no national picture of either the details surrounding vehicle-related flood fatalities or the incidence of these two general behaviours and the detailed contexts in which the public enters floodwater. Therefore, by studying the general public more comprehensively, there was an opportunity to quantify behaviours and identify the potential challenges and additional levers for communicating flood risk, as well as enabling greater insight into differences across Australia (both within and across jurisdictions).

In addition, the information that was already known about behaviour in floodwater related solely to the general public. Emergency services, in particular State Emergency Services (SES) personnel, were previously identified as an at-risk group for entering floodwater and flood fatalities.

In the context of established approaches to the investigation of risk perception, comprehension, and risk-taking behaviour, SES personnel represent an {\textquoteleft}expert{\textquoteright} group. This meant they could also provide insights about risk perception and risk communication when studied and compared to the {\textquoteleft}lay public{\textquoteright} (expert-novice paradigm), for example enabling identification of differences in use of words/ language, conceptualisation of {\textquoteleft}flood{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}flooded roads{\textquoteright}, and identification and use of environmental cues when judging flood risk.\ 

Finally, as a risk group there is an organisational imperative to study the behaviour of SES personnel entering floodwater when on/off duty. This research supports the evaluation, understanding, and provides opportunities to assist in the mitigation of a range of organisational risks, including

This project commenced in July 2017 and comprised broad two phases:

  1. Understanding behaviour in and around floodwater, and
  2. Collating flood risk communications and co-developing Community Service Announcements (CSAs) for flood for use in National broadcasting by the ABC.

Project strategy for research and collaboration

The research strategy involved a suite of research studies, and employed mixed qualitative and quantitative methods, including experimental research, questionnaires, and in-depth interviews employing a mental models approach to ensure the research problem is well understood, the needs of those at risk could be met, and knowledge is co-produced with end-users and community.

Consultation and collaboration with key stakeholders and various end-users were key aspects of the overall research approach and helped to determine the research foci through the lifetime of the project. Following this collaborative approach, the research was responsive to stakeholder contexts. This enabled the team to take advantage of opportunities to explore some new topics in greater depth (e.g., SES behaviours around floodwater), but has also meant there were some delays and changes to the planned research activities (e.g., being unable to progress some approaches and outputs due to COVID-19). As a consequence, some of the resulting outputs and projects differ to the outputs outlined at the start of the project.

Project overview - extending what is known and addressing the gaps

Previous research has established that floods in Australia are a significant, and often preventable, cause of death, and this research has provided some useful insights to the risk perceptions and planned behaviour among the public in relation to driving and floodwater (Fitzgerald, Du, Jamal, Clark, \& Hou, 2010; Hamilton, Peden, Pearson, \& Hagger, 2016; Haynes et al., 2017).

This project builds on existing knowledge in several important ways:

Overall, these various studies highlight some of the complexity and challenges in flood risk communication and flood risk assessment and factors that need to be considered when developing communication materials. The detailed nature of the data collected also provides insights to how interventions and flood risk communication and engagement work can be targeted.

A snapshot of key findings

As the project\ comprised a number of studies it also generated a substantial number of findings and insights. These have been condensed into a series of practitioner-focused Research into Practice Briefs. In addition, the BNHCRC Communications Team has developed a short series of videos to showcase some key research findings and augment these Briefs.

A snapshot of key findings across the various studies is provided below:

Areas for research utilisation

This\ project provides an in-depth understanding of how the public and emergency service professionals (SES) behave around, and understand the risks of, floodwater. The translation of these findings into utilisation and impact is an ongoing process that will continue beyond the formal end of the research.\ 

There are four main areas of research utilisation that are being pursued:

In addition\ to the above areas of potential and emerging utilisation, the project team has worked actively with end-users and a range of additional stakeholders to co-produce project outputs, including conference presentations (Taylor, Wiebusch, Tofa, Haynes; AFAC 2019) and co-authored peer-reviewed articles (Taylor, Tofa, Haynes, McLaren, Readman, Ferguson, Rundle, Rose, 2019).

Research Capacity Building

The\ research project team has also supported research capacity building through the mentoring and inclusion of students in research activities, including a successful PhD completion (Ahmed, 2019), five Masters of Organisational Psychology students, two psychology honours students, and a number of short-term research and engagement placements. The project funding has supported early career researchers (ECRs) and has enabled these ECRs and students to progress through co-authored peer-reviewed publications and utilisation outputs, i.e., Research into Practice Briefs.

}, keywords = {communication, communities, Flood, risk}, issn = {645}, author = {Mel Taylor and Matalena Tofa and Katharine Haynes} } @article {bnh-8192, title = {Risk mitigation from prescribed burning in Kangaroo Island and Mount Lofty Ranges - Black Summer final report}, number = {690}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

According to the Independent Review into South Australia{\textquoteright}s 2019-20 Bushfire Season, conditions were the worst on record with fires resulting in the loss of three human lives, 196 homes, 660 vehicles, 68,000 livestock, $200m of agricultural production. Around 280,000 ha were burnt by the fires, including total or partial burning of several National Parks.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC commissioned this project as part of a larger set of Black Summer fires research projects aimed at understanding the record-breaking fire season. This project focuses on answering questions about the effectiveness of prescribed burning, also known as hazard reduction burning, in mitigating risk in two areas affected by fires during the season: The Mount Lofty Ranges east of Adelaide, and Kangaroo Island.

The key questions were:

  1. How does risk respond to treatment in Kangaroo Island, an area with little formal quantification of prescribed burning benefits and costs?
  2. What was the risk in the leadup to the 2019-20 fire season in the Mt Lofty Ranges, and how will risk change in the next five years as a result of the implied fuel reduction from the fires, as well as alternative prescribed burning strategies?

These questions were answered using a well developed methodology combining large scale fire behaviour simulations and Bayesian risk quantification. Similar analyses have been carried out for a range of case study landscapes in southern Australia as part of the Hectares to tailor-made solutions CRC project, with results available online via the end-user tool the Prescribed Burning Atlas, and also the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub{\textquoteright}s projects for the NSW Bushfire Inquiry.

We found a clear relationship between the rate of prescribed burning and area subsequently burnt by wildfire in the Kangaroo Island case study. This translated into reductions in loss of life and property as well. Risk mitigation was more sensitive to edge treatment than landscape treatment, although both reduced risk. Conversely, increasing treatment (particularly at the edge) resulted in higher areas of the landscape exposed to vegetation being burnt below its minimum tolerable fire interval.

In the Mt Lofty Ranges, we found complex patterns of risk are likely in the aftermath of the 2019-20 fires. In the absence of further wildfire events, risk of area burnt is likely to rise substantially by 2025, regardless of prescribed burning rates, with a similar result for vegetation exposed to too frequent fire. However, risk sto life, property and infrastructure are projected to remain similar to current levels.

Our work contributes to the evidence base for prescribed burning planning in South Australia, with future work potentially examining new management values (e.g. smoke health costs, new biodiversity measures) and exploring empirical relationships between prescribed burning and fire-affected area in 2019-20.

}, keywords = {black summer, kangaroo island, mitigation, Mount Lofty Ranges, Prescribed burning, risk}, issn = {690}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Brett Cirulis and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock and Matthias M. Boer and Anthony Rawlins and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-8131, title = {Towards protective action: effective risk and warning communication during natural hazards {\textendash} final project report}, number = {692}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The release of the National Review of Warnings and Information (Emergency Management Victoria, 2014) triggered the need for a range of evidence-based practice about constructing better natural hazard emergency warning messages. This report showcases a three-year program of end-user driven interdisciplinary research that derived evidence-based insights into risk and warning communication during the response phase of natural hazard emergencies. The research examines existing and modified communication to community members who may be affected by natural hazards. The work outlined in this report builds on our previous CRC project on effective communication in natural hazards.

The first CRC project (2014-2017) focused on the pre-decisional processes of community members and business owners, particularly their exposure to, attention to, and comprehension of warning messages in the response and early recovery phase of multiple hazards. The current project (2017-2020) builds on that knowledge and focuses on how the inputs into the pre-decisional process{\textemdash}environmental cues, social cues, information sources, channel access and preference, warning messages and receiver characteristics{\textemdash}inform protective action during the response phases of natural hazards.

There are two core research aims:

These aims have been achieved through three tailored research packages:

This project employs a multi-method, multi-hazard research design to:

Our research findings have been shared with end-users through the AFAC Warnings Group, invited presentations and consultancies, private meetings, conferences, and workshops, and translated into practice via audits, public information, visual content (e.g., infographics), emergency alert templates, national doctrine, and to support the Australian Warnings System.

}, keywords = {action, communication, Natural hazards, protective, risk, warning}, issn = {692}, author = {Vivienne Tippett and Dominique Greer and Amisha Mehta and Paula Dootson and Lisa Bradley and Sophie Miller and Scott Murray} } @article {bnh-7138, title = {The Australian Disaster Resilience Index: a summary}, number = {588.2020}, year = {2020}, month = {07/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Natural hazards, such as bushfires, cyclones, floods, storms, heatwaves, earthquakes and tsunamis, have always occurred and will continue to occur in Australia. These natural hazards frequently intersect with human societies to create natural hazard emergencies that, in turn, cause disasters.

The effects of natural hazards on Australian communities are influenced by a unique combination of social, economic, natural environment, built environment, governance and geographical factors.

Australian communities face increasing losses and disruption from natural hazards, with the total economic cost of natural hazards in Australia averaging $18.2 billion per year between 2006 and 2016 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2017). This is expected to almost double by 2030 and to average $33 billion per year by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics, 2016). The social impacts of disasters are also substantial. Costs associated with social impacts may persist over a person{\textquoteright}s lifetime and can be greater than the costs of tangible damages (Deloitte Access Economics, 2016).

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of some natural hazard types in Australia (BOM \& CSIRO, 2018). An increasing population, demographic change, widening socio-economic disparity, expensive infrastructure and the location of\  communities in areas of high natural hazard risk also contributes to the potential for increasing losses from natural hazards.

There are two prominent schools of thought about the influence of natural hazards in human societies:

This resilience perspective has been adopted in the Australian Disaster Resilience Index, with the aim of better understanding and assessing the disaster resilience of Australian communities nationwide.

As such, disaster resilience can be understood as a protective characteristic that acts to reduce the effects of, and losses from, natural hazards. Resilience arises from the capacities of social, economic and government systems to prepare for, respond to and recover from a natural hazard event, and to learn, adapt and transform in anticipation of future natural hazard events.

}, keywords = {communities, Disaster risk reduction, emergencies, Emergency, Natural hazards, people, resilience, risk, risk reduction}, isbn = {978-0-6482756-6-4}, issn = {588.2020}, author = {Melissa Parsons and Ian Reeve and James McGregor and Graham Marshall and Richard Stayner and Judith McNeill and Peter Hastings and Sonya Glavac and Phil Morley} } @article {bnh-7378, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk: annual report 2019-2020}, number = {614}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This annual report contains a summary of research undertaken by 4 partner institutions towards the development of cost-effective seismic retrofit methods for vulnerable Australian buildings in the 12-month period from July 2019 through June 2020.

Progress has been made in 4 complementary fronts to:

  1. understand the seismic vulnerabilities of existing unreinforced masonry (URM) and limited ductile reinforced concrete (LDRC) buildings and methods to address them through seismic retrofit
  2. risk assessment of the building stock through development of an economic loss model
  3. advance an end-user focused research utilization project in the area of community risk reduction. This is done through an Earthquake Mitigation Case Study of the historic town of York in Western Australia
  4. commencement of an End-User Utilisation Project with York Shire Council and the WA Department of Fire and Emergency Services through a Natural Disaster Resilience Program funded grant.

The first of the above components is being researched in the Universities of Adelaide, Melbourne, and Swinburne. This work includes investigation of existing building seismic capacities and development of retrofit techniques. The second area is being studied by Geoscience and the work includes estimating direct and indirect losses associated with building damage and benefits from seismic retrofit. The third component is being conducted utilizing the research findings in the two other areas in collaboration with the Western Australia Department of Fire and Emergency Services, York Shire Council and its residents. The last component only started at the end of 2019 but is extremely exciting. To date, the project team has identified several URM buildings in the York Shire to act as {\textquoteleft}exemplars{\textquoteright} for seismic retrofit. The first of these, the York Residency Museum building, has been seismically assessed, retrofit solutions recommended, local consultants (engineering and building contractors) have submitted a report and estimated costings for the rehabilitation work and Council is now in discussions with the contractor.

Finally, using the new damage loss models and costings for seismically retrofitting buildings, recommendations are made for the development of seismic retrofit guidelines and policy based on the strong evidence base being developed by this CRC project team.

}, keywords = {building, earthquake, mitigation, risk, strategy}, issn = {614}, author = {Michael Griffith} } @inbook {bnh-6647, title = {Dimensions of Risk Justice and Resilience: Mapping Urban Planning{\textquoteright}s Role Between Individual Versus Collective Rights}, booktitle = {Natural Hazards and Disaster Justice: Challenges for Australia and Its Neighbours}, year = {2020}, pages = {93-115}, publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan}, organization = {Palgrave Macmillan}, edition = {1st}, chapter = {5}, address = {Singapore}, abstract = {

This chapter applies a justice framework to the complex of dilemmas between individual rights and the public good. It uses the case of the Wye River and Separation Creek Christmas Day 2015 bushfire in Victoria, Australia. Analysis of this event reveals the complex interactions of assumed, asserted and contested rights that play out before, during and after major destructive bushfire events, and their justice implications. The chapter suggests that there is a need to acknowledge and treat risks as complex manifestations of ongoing decisions over time; that existing emphases on individual property rights often erode the public good; that there is a need to set minimum standards in settlements; and that there is need to actively integrate individual and collective action to achieve risk justice.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, Human settlements, Justice, Public good, risk, urban planning, Wildfire}, isbn = {978-981-15-0465-5}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2_5}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-15-0466-2_5}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Janet Stanley} } @book {bnh-6841, title = {Feeling the heat: International perspectives on the prevention of wildfire ignition}, series = {Series on Climate Change and Society}, year = {2020}, pages = {319}, publisher = {Vernon Press}, organization = {Vernon Press}, edition = {1st}, address = {Wilmington}, abstract = {

In the context of climate change, world population growth and crashing ecological systems, wildfire is often a catastrophic and traumatic event. Its impact can include loss of life, life-changing injuries, long-term psychological stress; increases in domestic violence; destruction of properties, business and livestock; long-term housing insecurity; increased insurance premiums, fire-fighting, legal and health costs; as well as significant changes and species losses in the natural environment.

}, keywords = {ignition, Planning, prevention, response, risk, Wildfire}, issn = {978-1-64889-010-9}, url = {https://vernonpress.com/book/890}, author = {Janet Stanley and Alan March and James Ogloff and James Thompson} } @article {bnh-7389, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation {\textendash} final project report}, number = {615}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We are pleased to present the 2020 Final Report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, {\textquotedblleft}From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems{\textquotedblright}.

Prescribed burning is a central feature of contemporary fire management, not just in Australia but in fire-prone countries around the world. Yet we lack a firm quantitative basis for understanding and comparing its effectiveness at mitigating risk across different regions. This project aims to address these gaps and provide critical support to agency decision makers across southern Australia by undertaking a systematic investigation of the drivers of prescribed burning effectiveness across the region. This project will thus support fire managers in transitioning from hectare targets to a set of tailor-made, risk-based approaches.

The project is divided into two phases: fire behaviour accounting and risk accounting. At the heart of the project is predictive modelling of the effect of prescribed burning on subsequent bushfire (wildfire) behaviour. In this project we combine ignition likelihood modelling, fuel type and arrangement from fire management agencies, weather representing all possible local fire weather conditions from Bureau of Meteorology and fire history including wildfire and variable combinations of edge and landscape treatments, applied to agency or model-derived burn blocks. From thousands of simulations, key outputs such as fire size and intensity are used estimate impacts on key management values: house loss, life loss, length of road damaged, length of powerline damaged and area burnt below minimum tolerable fire interval. We use Bayesian decision networks to estimate risk mitigation, including cost, available through different treatments. Local trajectories of cost for given treatment rates and locations can then be tracked and compared between regions, allowing identification of the most cost-effective prescribed burning strategies, either overall or for a given management value.

The key finding of the project is that the effectiveness of prescribed burning at mitigating area burnt by bushfire and other key values varies considerably across landscapes and values. That is, there is no one-size-fits-all solution to prescribed burning. This has major implications for fire managers, suggesting that tailored prescribed burning solutions are possible, based on the unique risk mitigation profile for any given suite of management values in that region. Further details are included in this report and journal articles listed herein.

While the project now draws to a close, its findings live on in the Prescribed Burning Atlas, a dedicated website for fire managers, researchers and anyone else interested in using our project to support their planning, decision making and communication. The Prescribed Burning Atlas will provide a geographically-based summary of risk for decision makers in an accessible, user friendly format. Our project is unique in placing the design and delivery of this utilisation output at its heart. Active involvement of end-users throughout 2020 and beyond will be crucial in ensuring uptake and translation into outcomes for end-users and the communities they serve. From a research perspective, key outstanding questions include quantification of risk mitigation for new values (smoke effects on human health, biodiversity measures, cultural burning) and expansion of the approach to represent the full richness of planned and unplanned landscape fire over time.

}, keywords = {ecosystems, hectares, mitigation, Prescribed burning, risk, systems, tailor-made solutions}, issn = {615}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Brett Cirulis and Trent Penman and Owen Price and Matthias M. Boer and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-6225, title = {Behaviour around floodwater: challenges for floodwater safety and risk communication}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {34}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, pages = {40-47}, abstract = {

There is little disagreement that entering floodwater is risky, whether in a vehicle or on foot. There is usually little or no visibility of what is under the surface and even shallow water with moderate flow can make vehicles unstable or sweep people off their feet. In addition, floodwater will often contain contaminants and debris. Therefore, the safest course of action is to avoid entering floodwater. Indeed, the most pervasive risk communication message is {\textquoteleft}If it{\textquoteright}s flooded, forget it{\textquoteright}. This clear, unambiguous message is good at getting people{\textquoteright}s attention, but it is unclear whether it actually changes behaviour. Research with Australian public, floodplain management professionals, State Emergency Services (SES) personnel, and other emergency management experts has identified a number of challenges to floodwater safety and risk communications. Using a combination of research evidence and expert opinion, this paper discusses four pressing challenges and highlights some of the approaches being taken to help address them.

}, keywords = {communications, Fatalities, floodwater, risk, safety}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-october-2019-behaviour-around-floodwater-challenges-for-floodwater-safety-and-risk-communication/}, author = {Mel Taylor and Matalena Tofa and Katharine Haynes and Joshua McLaren and Peter Readman and Diana Ferguson and Sascha Rundle and Danny Rose} } @article {bnh-5831, title = {Building resilience through flood risk communication annual report 2018-2019}, number = {509}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This project commenced in July 2017 and comprises two phases:

  1. Understanding behaviour in and around floodwater, and
  2. Evaluating flood risk communication materials and developing guidelines.

This project is based on the findings of earlier BNHCRC research that investigated human fatalities from natural disasters (Haynes et al., 2017). This project focuses on the two behaviours most frequently associated with flood fatalities:

  1. Driving into floodwater in a motor vehicle, and
  2. Recreating in floodwater.

The focus is on the at-risk groups identified from this earlier research including emergency services personnel, younger and older male drivers, and children and young adults who play in floodwater (Haynes et al., 2017).

The year 2 activities that have been undertaken include:

Work is now underway to transition to Phase 2 activities and to maximise project utilisation opportunities.

}, keywords = {communication, emergency management., Flood, resilience, risk, risk mitigation}, issn = {509}, author = {Mel Taylor and Katharine Haynes and Matalena Tofa} } @article {bnh-6854, title = {Cost effectiveness of fire management strategies in southern Australia}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, volume = {29}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, pages = {427-439}, abstract = {

Fire-management agencies invest significant resources to reduce the impacts of future fires. There has been increasing public scrutiny over how agencies allocate fire-management budgets and, in response, agencies are looking to use quantitative risk-based approaches to make decisions about expenditure in a more transparent manner. Advances in fire-simulation software and computing capacity of fire-agency staff have meant that fire simulators have been increasingly used for quantitative fire-risk analysis. Here we analyse the cost trade-offs of future fire management in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and surrounding areas by combining fire simulation with Bayesian Decision Networks. We compare potential future-management approaches considering prescribed burning, suppression and fire exclusion. These data combined costs of treatment and impacts on assets to undertake a quantitative risk analysis. The proposed approach for fuel treatment in ACT and New South Wales (NSW) provided the greatest reduction in risk and the most cost-effective approach to managing fuels in this landscape. Past management decisions have reduced risk in the landscape and the legacy of these treatments will last for at least 3 years. However, an absence of burning will result in an increased risk from fire in this landscape.

}, keywords = {Bayesian Network, house loss, life loss, prescribed fire, risk}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18128}, url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18128}, author = {Trent Penman and Brett Cirulis} } @article {bnh-5742, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy for building related earthquake risk - annual report 2018-2019}, number = {498}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This annual report contains a summary of 12-month research undertaken by 4 partner institutions towards the development of cost-effective seismic retrofit methods for vulnerable Australian buildings. Progress has been made in 3 complementary fronts to:
1) Understand the seismic vulnerabilities of existing unreinforced masonry (URM) and limited ductile reinforced concrete (LDRC) buildings and methods to address them through seismic retrofit;
2) Risk assessment of the building stock through development of an economic loss model; and
3) Advance an end user focused research utilization project in the area of community risk reduction. This is done through an Earthquake Mitigation Case Study for the historic town of York in Western Australia.

The first of the above components is being researched in the Universities of Adelaide, Melbourne, and Swinburne. This work includes investigation of existing building seismic capacities and development of retrofit techniques. The second area is being studied by Geoscience and the work includes estimating direct and indirect losses associated with building damage and benefits from seismic retrofit. The last component is being conducted utilizing the research findings in the two other areas in collaboration with the Western Australia Department of Fire and Emergency Services, York Shire Council and its residents. Finally, using the new damage loss models and costings for seismically retrofitting buildings, recommendations are made for the development of seismic retrofit guidelines and policy based on the strong evidence base being developed by this CRC project team.

}, keywords = {building risk, cost-effective, cost-mitigation, earthquake, risk}, issn = {498}, author = {Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-6337, title = {Exploring ISO31000 Risk Management during Dynamic Fire and Emergency Operations in Western Australia}, journal = {Fire}, volume = {2}, year = {2019}, month = {04/2019}, abstract = {

Firefighting remains an inherently dangerous occupation with serious injuries and fatalities reported globally. The Australasian Fire Authorities Council adopt ISO31000 as the standard of risk management for all firefighting and mitigation operations. However, previous studies have reported that decisions made by incident controllers during dynamic emergencies are typically reactionary and only partially compliant with the ISO31000 process. This paper describes research using new qualitative and quantitative data that support incident controllers in managing risk during dynamic fire and emergency situations, in accordance with ISO31000. The research was completed through two studies. The first study explored risk attitudes of serving fire service officers through semistructured interviews and in-depth structured surveys. The second study identified the severity of firefighting consequences and likelihood through analysis of Western Australian fire service safety and incident reports between January 1st, 2001 and January 1st, 2015. The overall and conditional probability of specific injuries during the various tasks undertaken during emergency incidents was calculated using Bayesian statistical analysis. The findings indicate that whilst current practices are arguably effective in preventing worst case consequences being realised, improvements in operational risk management can be made in accordance with ISO31000 during emergencies and in pre-incident planning.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, firefighting, probability, risk, risk management}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire2020021}, url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/2/2/21}, author = {Greg Penney} } @article {bnh-5677, title = {Overcoming Ambiguity: Conflict Between Emergency Warning Messages and Socio-Environmental Cues}, journal = {Prehospital and Disaster Medicine}, volume = {34}, year = {2019}, month = {05/2019}, abstract = {

Introduction:

Emergency services are not the only source of information that the public uses when considering taking action during an event. There are also environmental cues, information from the media, or actions by peers that can influence perceptions and actions. When cues from different information sources are in conflict, it can cause uncertainty about the right protective action to take.

Aim:

Our research responds to concerns that conflicting cues exacerbate community non-compliance with emergency warnings.

Methods:

The sample consisted of 2,649 participants who completed one of 32 surveys.

Results:

The findings from this project confirmed emergency services agencies{\textquoteright} suspicions that conflicting cues can affect information processing and risk perceptions, and therefore prevent people from taking appropriate protective action. The results were reasonably consistent across fire and flood scenarios, suggesting the problem of conflicting cues is not hazard-specific. When presented with consistent cues, participants were more likely to evacuate, perceive risk about the event, share information with friends, family, and peers, find emergency warnings to be effective, and comprehend information. When faced with conflicting cues, participants were more likely to seek out additional information. It affected their information processing and self-efficacy. The results did not change for people of different ages, native language, country of birth, or post-hazard experience. This is contrary to most emergency literature research findings, which show that individual differences play a role in impacting propensity to take protective action. However, there does appear to be a significant gender effect. These results require further exploration.

Discussion:

These findings may be used to assist emergency services agencies to tailor community warnings during time-critical situations, and develop ways to mitigate ambiguity caused by conflicting cues to encourage protective action in order to save lives and properties.

}, keywords = {behaviours, Emergency management, risk, Risk perception, Warnings}, doi = { https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X1900061X}, url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/prehospital-and-disaster-medicine/article/overcoming-ambiguity-conflict-between-emergency-warning-messages-and-socioenvironmental-cues/F8F82D37A8E3E526E0C6BD509EB7642F}, author = {Paula Dootson and Dominique Greer and Sophie Miller and Vivienne Tippett} } @inbook {bnh-5412, title = {Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere: Perspectives and Challenges for the Built Environment in Australia}, booktitle = {Hurricane Risk}, volume = {1}, year = {2019}, pages = {199-214}, publisher = {Springer}, organization = {Springer}, address = {Cham}, abstract = {

With statistically significant trends suggesting that tropical cyclones are migrating poleward in the Southern Hemisphere, specifically in the South Pacific Ocean basin, it is important to review the current state of knowledge on poleward migrating tropical cyclone activity. Furthermore, given the potential impacts they may have on regions traditionally unaffected by tropical cyclones, review of current residential building practice in Australia is warranted. This chapter highlights the significance of the long-term poleward trends in the Southern Hemisphere and potential mechanisms that are driving the geographical shift. Residential building practice in cyclonic and non-cyclonic regions in Australia is discussed to address existing vulnerabilities and how they can lead to catastrophic impacts. Methods and tools to evaluate tropical cyclone risk as well as future research needs are then discussed in the context of adapting to and mitigating for tropical cyclone activity that may migrate poleward. Finally, the chapter concludes with a summary and some finishing thoughts about the advantages of forming multidisciplinary teams to address the grand challenge of disaster resilience in the built environment in Australia.

}, keywords = {hurricane, hurricane risk, risk, South Pacific Ocean basin}, isbn = {978-3-030-02401-7}, issn = {978-3-030-02402-4}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_10}, url = {https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-02402-4_10}, author = {Richard Krupar III and D. J. Smith} } @article {bnh-5731, title = {Scientific diversity, scientific uncertainty and risk mitigation policy \& planning - final report}, number = {494}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This is the Final Report of the {\textquoteleft}RMPP project{\textquoteright} (Scientific Diversity, Scientific Uncertainty and Risk Mitigation Policy and Planning project), which addressed the use and utility of science and other forms of knowledge by natural hazard practitioners, and the pragmatic meaning these hold for their risk mitigation work. Natural hazard managers often expect, and are expected, to achieve outcomes by using scientific facts and rational problem-solving to increase certainty of decisions in the face of hazardous events (Funtowitcz and Ravetz, 2003). At the same time, the uncertainties of natural hazards means that this sector has always set different terms to the this {\textquoteleft}pipeline{\textquoteright} approach to the use science (also called the {\textquoteleft}linear model of scientific expertise{\textquoteright}). The ability of policymakers and practitioners to explain and justify risk mitigation and its evidence is compromised without greater insight into how science and other forms of knowledge are used in emergency management policy and practice. The sector does not receive the full range of information it requires, and continues to be vulnerable to the perpetuation of {\textquoteleft}myths{\textquoteright} about science, its use and its usefulness.

}, keywords = {fire impact, policy and planning, risk, scientific diversity, scientific uncertainty}, issn = {494}, author = {Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale and Liz Clarke} } @article {bnh-5650, title = {Where to prescribe burn: the costs and benefits of prescribed burning close to houses}, journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire}, year = {2019}, month = {06/2019}, abstract = {

Prescribed burning is used in Australia as a tool to manage fire risk and protect assets. A key challenge is deciding how to arrange the burns to generate the highest benefits to society. Studies have shown that prescribed burning in the wildland{\textendash}urban interface (WUI) can reduce the risk of house loss due to wildfires, but the costs and benefits of different arrangements for prescribed burning treatments have rarely been estimated. In this study, we use three different models to explore the costs and benefits of modifying the spatial arrangement of prescribed burns on public land, using the south-west of Western Australia as a case study. We simulate two hypothetical scenarios: landscape treatments and WUI treatments. We evaluate the long-term costs and benefits of each scenario and compare the results from the three models, highlighting the management implications of each model. Results indicate that intensifying prescribed burning treatments in public land in the WUI achieves a greater reduction in damages compared with applying the majority of the treatments in rural areas. However, prescribed burning in the WUI is significantly more expensive and, despite additional benefits gained from this strategy, in most cases it is not the most economically efficient strategy.

}, keywords = {benefit-cost analysis, fire management, fuel treatment, house loss, Prescribed burning, preventative mitigation, risk, trade-off, wildland fire economics, Wildland-urban interface}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18192}, url = {http://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF18192}, author = {Veronique Florec and Michael Burton and David J Pannell and Joel Kelso and George J. Milne} } @article {bnh-4572, title = {Can major post-event inquiries and reviews contribute to lessons management?}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management }, volume = {33}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, chapter = {34}, abstract = {

Significant disaster and emergency management events are invariably followed by formal post-event inquiries and reviews. Such reviews identify lessons to improve future capacities and set the agenda for policy and management reform for emergency management organisations. As a result, there is a substantial body of reflections and recommendations gathered across all hazard types and jurisdictions by formal, structured inquiry processes that contribute to lessons management for the emergency sector. However, whether there is any coherence or core lessons emerging for the Australian sector from the totality of postevent inquiries is unknown. The work reported here identifies the recommendations from these inquiries. A meta-analysis of 1336 recommendations made in 55 Australian major post-event reviews and inquiries since 2009 revealed common themes. The recommendations were compiled into a comprehensive database and categorised into 32 themes. The analysis highlighted recurrent themes from recommendations spanning multiple jurisdictions. The study indicates the potential value for Australian and New Zealand emergency management agencies and jurisdictions of using the aggregate data organised as a resource for lessons management.

}, keywords = {commission, communication, emergency management., lessons management, Planning, post-disaster, review, risk}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jan-2018-can-major-post-event-inquiries-and-reviews-contribute-to-lessons-management/}, author = {Dovers, Steve} } @article {bnh-4547, title = {Evaluation of Survive and Thrive}, number = {359}, year = {2018}, month = {04/2018}, pages = {94}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Survive and Thrive pilot program is an intensive two year bushfire education program for primary school students in Grade 5/6. It is delivered through a community-based partnership between local CFA brigades and local primary schools. To date, the program has been delivered in the localities of Anglesea and Strathewen. In Anglesea, the partnership between Anglesea CFA and Anglesea Primary School was established in 2013 and the program has been running for four years. In Strathewen, the partnership between Strathewen Primary School and Arthurs Creek Fire Brigade was established in 2016 and the program has been running for 18 months.

The purpose of this evaluation was to examine the short-term and intermediate-term outcomes of the program in both Anglesea and Strathewen and to identify the key mechanisms and processes that contributed to those outcomes. By identifying the mechanisms and processes that contributed to program outcomes, the evaluation also seeks to identify what aspects of the program generated the most valuable outcomes for the resources invested. An additional aim of the evaluation was to examine key factors influencing the ongoing sustainability of the program in Anglesea and Strathewen and to identify a possible pathway toward scaled implementation.

The evaluation employed a mixed-methods design involving both quantitative and qualitative methods. The qualitative measures, which included semi-structured interviews and focus group interviews were the main focus; however, these were supplemented by a quantitative survey that was administered to both children and parents.\ \ 

}, keywords = {Bushfire, child, communities., Emergency management, Natural disasters, recovery, reduction, risk}, issn = {359}, author = {Briony Towers and Kevin Ronan} } @article {bnh-6308, title = {Extreme floods and river values: A social{\textendash}ecological perspective}, journal = {River Research and Applications}, year = {2018}, month = {08/2018}, pages = {1-11}, abstract = {

The social{\textendash}ecological status of rivers is particularly pronounced during extreme flood events. Extreme floods are a substantial threat to people, infrastructure, and livelihoods. Efforts to address the threats of extreme floods are aligned largely with social values of flood risk mitigation, flood preparation, and avoidance of loss. However, extreme floods are also a fundamental driver of river ecosystems, aligned with ecological (biophysical) values of event effectiveness, river change, disturbance, biotic response, and heterogeneity. A survey of the public perceptions of extreme floods revealed that participants generally understood the ecological values of extreme floods through concepts of naturalness, climate change, and knowledge production. However, participants had less understanding of how river integrity might influence the response of rivers to extreme floods. Resilience can be used as a framework for uniting the social and ecological values of extreme floods because it embodies a common language of change, disturbance, and adaptation and complements the socially dominated discourse of risk and emergency management. Three strategies are given for river scientists to frame ecological values in parallel with the paradigms of the socially dominated discourse of extreme floods: be prepared to act following an extreme flood disaster, learn and use the language of the flood risk and emergency management sector, and undertake assessments of the ecological values of extreme floods to highlight the threats to those values that may occur with climate change and river modification.

}, keywords = {disasters, disturbance ecology, flood management, resilience, risk}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3355}, url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/rra.3355}, author = {Melissa Parsons} } @mastersthesis {bnh-5391, title = {Improving adaptation planning for future sea level rise and coastal flooding}, year = {2018}, school = {University of Tasmania}, address = {Hobart}, abstract = {

Sea level rise has the potential to exacerbate coastal flooding around the world, causing more frequent extreme sea levels, nuisance flooding and permanent inundation. Projecting diverse physical, environmental and socio-economic impacts to coastal communities across multi-decadal timeframes is vital for informed adaptation planning. However, this is increasingly uncertain and challenged by conflicting stakeholder priorities.

This thesis develops an interdisciplinary approach to advance the planning of long-term adaptation pathways in the context of coastal flood risk management. Utilising three case studies in south-east Australia, it combines the strengths of robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) {\textendash} both prominent tools to support decision-making under conditions of uncertainty {\textendash} together with solicited values-based information to make three novel advances towards flexible adaptation pathways planning.

First, this thesis combines the strengths of RDM and DAPP for planning adaptation pathways by using scenario discovery to provide a multi-dimensional description of adaptation tipping points. The scenario discovery process uses an existing cluster finding algorithm to identify future conditions where adaptation policies no longer keep flood risk at tolerable levels. Combining RDM and DAPP is a novel approach in coastal flood risk management and scenario discovery provides greater visibility on the physical factors driving adaptation tipping points. Second, values-based information is integrated into the adaptation planning process in an attempt to consider subjective social and cultural impacts from coastal flooding. In this regard, the novel combination and explanatory value of lived and landscape values is investigated. Consideration of these more intangible effects are often omitted in coastal adaptation planning but can contribute to more informed adaptation decisions. Third, the combined RDM and DAPP method developed uses both geographic information system (GIS) software and open source programming tools to analyse flood impacts. This improves the usability and relevance of a combined RDM and DAPP approach, enabling the efficient redeployment and customisation of the method to suit different location-specific needs. Such an approach also provides a lower cost entry point for local government agencies to begin planning coastal adaptation pathways.

Each of these advances combine to provide a framework that improves the way coastal adaptation pathways are planned and developed. The findings elucidated from the case studies show how a combined RDM and DAPP approach can account for spatial and temporal interactions between hazard, exposure and vulnerability flood risk factors, which improves the way robustness is measured for adaptation policy options. Values-based approaches can shape the selection of adaptation objectives, improve the design of options, support the evaluations of adaptation pathways and inform monitoring systems. The resultant adaptation pathways framework can support local government in planning sustainable strategies to manage long-term flood impacts. This has global applications for coastal flood risk management that will become increasingly important throughout the coming century.

}, keywords = {adaptation, Climate change, coastal flooding, decision-making, Planning, risk, sea level rise, uncertainty}, url = {https://eprints.utas.edu.au/29624/}, author = {Timothy Ramm} }