@article {bnh-8215, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk {\textendash} Melbourne case study}, number = {707}, year = {2021}, month = {09/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Earthquake hazard was not fully recognised in Australian building design until the mid-1990{\textquoteright}s. This oversight has resulted in a legacy of vulnerable buildings that can be readily damaged in moderate to severe Australian earthquakes. In particular, older unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings built with the architectural styles, materials and construction details used in the United Kingdom are particularly vulnerable. Australian earthquakes have highlighted the vulnerability of this building type. These events include the Adelaide Earthquake of 1954, the Meckering Earthquake of 1968, the Newcastle Earthquake of 1989 and the Kalgoorlie Earthquake of 2010, all of which damaged pre WWII masonry buildings in particular.\  Buildings of this style are present in the older centres of our major cities, and Melbourne has a very significant number of these. As shown in this research, in number nearly half of the buildings in the Melbourne central business district are of this type of construction. The damage to these buildings can greatly add to human casualties as a result of falling masonry elements. Further, the severity of damage and losses can impede the recovery of cities like Melbourne physically, economically and socially. Finally, many of these buildings have heritage value to communities that residents may want preserved.

This document reports on the final deliverable for Project A9 Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre (CRC). It builds on the masonry component research of the University of Adelaide in this project and is a milestone for Geoscience Australia. The work follows the utilisation project entitled {\textquotedblleft}Earthquake Mitigation of WA Regional Towns: York Case Study{\textquotedblright}, that was jointly delivered by GA and the University of Adelaide. The utilisation project developed original condition and mitigated vulnerability models for six URM building types. In this project, these outcomes have been applied to the much larger Melbourne CBD exposure.

The project had the following key components:

The work required the development of the three fundamental risk elements of earthquake hazard, community exposure and building vulnerability. It also entailed the assessment of the economic loss measures associated with human injury, contents losses, rental income, commercial property leasing, and business activity. Additionally, it included the application of the semi-intangible value placed on human life to society. Each of these are described below.

Earthquake hazard

This study has drawn upon the latest understanding of the Melbourne region earthquake hazard by utilising the recently released National Seismic Hazard Assessment (NSHA 2018) (Allen et al, 2018a). The bedrock hazard from this assessment shows Melbourne to have a {\textquotedblleft}low{\textquotedblright} earthquake hazard by global standards but significant by Australian standards. The hazard is further amplified by the presence of the sediments deposited by the Yarra River.\  These soil effects increase the hazard, particularly those in the study region south of the Yarra River. The effects of soil amplification can double the severity of shaking in some areas.

Community exposure

The definition of the building assets in the study region utilised several sources. The available state government building data integrated into the National Exposure Information System (NEXIS) was accessed and supplemented by an engineering survey database developed and maintained by GA for the Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation. This was further refined by a desktop review of all masonry buildings utilising available street level imagery. In total there were 1,543 buildings in the study region, and 687 of these were identified as URM.

The assessment of human activity was achieved by utilising research undertaken outside of this project. This research utilised a population model developed by downscaling a destination zone based telecommunication model with pedestrian counts, the Melbourne traffic control systems movement counts, and building floor area information. Using this work it was possible to define the local human exposure at the time of the scenario event, particularly those in damaged buildings and those potentially exposed to falling masonry during a rapid onset earthquake event.

Building vulnerability

The building vulnerability assessment work for the URM building stock was a direct utilisation of the six vulnerability types identified in the earlier York WA mitigation study. This included the vulnerability in present condition, and that with mitigation measures applied to the vulnerable elements. To complete the context, the vulnerability of other building types was attributed using a suite of models developed through an adaptation of US HAZUS models, reference to \ heuristically developed models from a GA facilitated UN workshop (Maqsood et al, 2014), and through heuristic adjustments by the project team. This vulnerability of non-URM buildings remained a constant in the study as mitigation of these buildings was not considered.

Economics of cost assessment

The economic assessment considered a broad range of measures. These ranged from the direct costs to property owner, building occupiers, and businesses through to health care costs and the partially intangible value placed on the loss of a human life. The aim was to provide scalable information on benefits versus cost to a range of decision makers and investors. Importantly, the measures where not comprehensive and so represent a lower bound to the actual avoided impacts mitigation achieves. For example, the cost of emergency response, clean-up and community recovery support were not considered. Neither was a macro-economic perspective developed to capture non-impacted businesses that would benefit from a stimulus in business activity such as in the construction industry, the supply of home appliances, soft furnishings and drapery. Significantly, the value of avoided heritage building loss was considered through the utilisation of metrics developed by a UWA led CRC project.

Scenario impacts and risks

The study considered a single rare earthquake scenario having an annual likelihood of 1/5,000 of causing the targeted bedrock shaking severity beneath the Melbourne CBD, or greater. This likelihoods corresponds with a 1\%, chance of this shaking severity being exceeded in the next 50 years. For the event the injuries and other losses within the scope of this study were assessed using the human exposure corresponding with 11:00am of Monday through to Thursday. The losses ranged from $737m for building damage only, through to $1.66b for the other monetary costs considered.\  The value of human life lost increased this to $3.97b. Where 25\% of the masonry building stock was retrofitted, over 30 years, these losses reduced by approximately 16\%.

The reduction in injuries if this event occurred in 30 years time was also evaluated. Serious injuries reduced by 16 and deaths by 98 persons. Urban Search and Rescue logistics would also reduce correspondingly.

In a similar manner, the long term financial risk of the Melbourne CBD study region was evaluated for building damage. It was presented as the average annualised loss for the URM building stock and for the entire study region buildings. It was also forecast 30 years into the future and the financial risk reduced by 38\% for the URM building stock and by 10\% across the entire study region buildings.

Discussion and outcomes

Earthquakes occur frequently in Australia with over 100 events greater than magnitude 3.0 (ML) recorded within the Australian continent every year by Geoscience Australia. The smaller and more frequent events are typically non-damaging, whereas the less frequent larger events can be very damaging when they occur close to a community. This plays out in the economics of strengthening older structures where the benefits of avoided building damage and contents losses through retrofit for earthquake are not a full offset for the significant costs.\  Other avoided costs associated with business losses, lost wages, health care costs, and the value placed on human life, do increase the sum significantly but are not realised by the property owner. While not all avoided costs were considered, this project indicates that the justification for retrofit based solely on a financial investment may be difficult to demonstrate for URM buildings in Melbourne.

As was also illustrated by the earlier York study, there are other considerations for the retrofit of URM buildings in the Melbourne CBD and in other older business districts in the city. If a rare earthquake occurred locally during a period of high public exposure there would be considerable loss of life. This research has shown that if a 5,000 year Return Period (RP) event (5.5 Mw) occurring on a business day approximately 100 people would die with close parallels to the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake outcome for masonry structures (42 fatalities). This may point to cheaper levels of retrofit with the objective of tying back elements that could cause casualties, rather than having the aim of avoiding economic loss.

Further, following a rare, but credible, earthquake high value heritage buildings would be lost. The research has shown that the willingness to pay by just the residents of the City of Melbourne LGA adds a notional 10\% of the total benefits of the mitigation program.

SUMMARY

The project has applied a range of retrofit measures for a suite of six URM building types developed as part of Project A9 to a very large population of URM building found in the Melbourne CBD. These measures have been demonstrated to reduce the physical vulnerability of each building. The project has also translated this vulnerability change into broader metrics that form an evidence base to inform decisions to retrofit.

The project has also demonstrated the benefit of retrofit through a virtual retrofit of a major city CBD. These benefits include reduced post event logistics for emergency management and the local government, reducing financial losses to building owners, businesses, and reducing injuries and fatalities. It has also demonstrated that retrofit reduces the long term financial cost of earthquake hazard, thereby making risk transfer through insurance uptake more affordable. Finally, it has demonstrated how valuable heritage structures can be progressively preserved for the future by protecting them from future credible earthquakes.

}, keywords = {buildings, earthquake, Melbourne, mitigation, risk, strategy}, issn = {707}, author = {Hyeuk Ryu and Martin Wehner and Jaroslav Vaculik and Valdis Juskevics and Mark Edwards and Michael Griffith and Itismita Mohanty and Stuart Butt and Neil Corby and Trevor Allen and Robert Hewison} } @article {bnh-7952, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk - final project report}, number = {657}, year = {2021}, month = {04/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This final report contains a summary of the research undertaken by the research team from four partner institutions towards the development of an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the seismic risk posed by the most vulnerable Australian buildings subject to earthquakes.\  Without this evidence base, it is impossible to make cost-effective and economically justifiable decisions by building owners and government officials on all matters concerning seismic strengthening of existing and design of new buildings.\  While the focus of this project is on buildings, many of the project outputs will also be relevant for other Australian infrastructure such as bridges, roads and ports, while at the same time complementing other {\textquoteleft}Natural Hazards{\textquoteright} CRC project proposals for severe wind and flood.\ 

In order to achieve the overall project aim, work was undertaken on three complementary fronts to:

  1. Understand the seismic vulnerabilities of existing unreinforced masonry (URM) and limited ductile reinforced concrete (LDRC) buildings and methods to address them through seismic retrofit;
  2. Risk assessment of the building stock through development of an economic loss model with trial evaluations for a regional town (York, WA) and a metropolitan area (Melbourne); and
  3. Advance an end-user focused research utilisation project in the area of community risk reduction. This is done through an Earthquake Mitigation Case Study for the historic town of York in Western Australia.

The first of the above components was researched in the Universities of Adelaide, Melbourne, and Swinburne. This work included investigations of existing building seismic capacities and development of building specific retrofit techniques. The second area was studied by Geoscience Australia and the work includes estimating direct and indirect losses associated with building damage and benefits from seismic retrofit.\  The delivery date for the Melbourne CBD trial evaluation was delayed due to Covid-19 impacts but the revised delivery date of March 2021 has been agreed by the CRC. The last component was conducted utilizing the research findings in the two other areas in collaboration with the Western Australia Department of Fire and Emergency Services, York Shire Council and its residents.

Finally, using the new damage loss models and costings for seismically retrofitting buildings, recommendations are made for the development of seismic retrofit guidelines and policy based on the strong evidence base being developed by this CRC project team.

As a consequence, the project has been extremely successful with several end-users implementing the research outputs.\  York Shire Council has embarked on seismic retrofit of up to three buildings in the Shire as demonstrations to other building owners of the cost-effectiveness as well as helping to develop the local expertise amongst the building profession to implement these simple seismic strengthening techniques.\  The project has also resulted in a follow-on project in Western Australia to expand the building typologies from York to include three additional typologies that are common in the rest of WA.\  The retrofit strategies for all nine typologies will be made publically available through web sites.

}, keywords = {buildings, cost-effective, earthquake, mitigation, risk, strategy}, issn = {657}, author = {Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-8130, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings {\textendash} final project report}, number = {691}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations made during the 2011 and 2013 floods in Australia, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. Considerable costs were sustained by all levels of government and property owners to effect damage repair and enable community recovery.

A fundamental reason for this damage was inappropriate development in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood prone areas. While the vulnerability and associated flood risk for newer construction is being addressed (moderated) by new standards (ABCB, 2012), building controls and land use planning, the vulnerability associated with existing building stock remains. This vulnerability contributes disproportionally to overall flood risk in many Australian catchments.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Collaborative Research Centre (CRC) project entitled Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings addresses this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains. The project addresses the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the flood risk posed by the most vulnerable Australian houses and complements parallel CRC projects for earthquake and severe wind.

The project has developed a building classification schema to categorise Australian residential buildings into a range of typical storey types. Mitigation strategies developed nationally and internationally have been reviewed. A floodproofing matrix has been developed to assess appropriate strategies for the selected storey types. All appropriate strategies have been costed for the selected storey types through the engagement of quantity surveying specialists. Vulnerability curves have been developed featuring reduced losses achieved through appropriate mitigation strategies for the five selected storey types.

Furthermore, selected building materials/systems have been tested to ascertain their resilience to floodwater exposure. These tests were aimed at addressing knowledge gaps in the areas of strength and durability of building materials during immersion.

A research utilisation project with NFRAG, AIDR and FMA as key stakeholders commenced in 2018. The project has developed generalised vulnerability functions for use by floodplain managers who may not have detailed exposure information.

In concluding the project, cost benefit analyses of mitigation options were conducted at three levels of resolution. These have added to cost versus benefit work already completed by the project team for Launceston as a utilisation project. The results are an evidence base to inform decision making by government and property owners on the mitigation of flood risk by providing information on the cost effectiveness of different mitigation strategies.

This report describes the research methods, project activities, outcomes and their potential for utilisation.

}, keywords = {buildings, Flood, mitigation, strategy}, issn = {691}, author = {Dale, K and Maqsood, T and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-8120, title = {Economics of natural hazards - final project report}, number = {666}, year = {2021}, month = {07/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The key aim of our project was to provide evidence on the economic, social, and environmental impacts of natural hazards, in order to help hazard managers make better decisions about the allocation of resources for the mitigation of natural hazards impacts. Using the tools and materials we have created in this project, our end-users will be better equipped to estimate the tangible (market) and intangible (non-market) impacts of natural hazards and assess how mitigation investments may reduce those impacts.

With this aim in mind, our main focus has been the development of tools and materials that make it easier for natural hazards managers to estimate the value of mitigation, integrate intangible (non-market) values in economic analyses of mitigation, and evaluate the difference it makes to include non-market values. Our goal has always been to provide managers with the tools they need to be able to make better decisions and have the evidence to back up their decisions.

Our project delivered 5 key outcomes:

  1. We launched an online platform for the Value Tool for Natural Hazards (a searchable database of the best available non-market value estimates relevant to natural hazards).
  2. We conducted a non-market valuation study that filled a major knowledge gap identified in the non-market values literature (i.e. the values of cultural heritage, social disruption and mental health, and how these are affected by natural hazards) and updated the Value Tool with the data from this study.
  3. We developed the Economic Analysis Screening Tool (EAST) for the evaluation of the (market and non-market) costs and benefits of mitigation options.
  4. We created a Free Online Video Course on the economics of natural hazards, using drawings and simple examples to explain key economic concepts and how they are applied to evaluate different mitigation options.
  5. We conducted an online training course on how to use economics in natural hazards management and delivered it to 4 different groups of end-user managers and practitioners.

All outcomes of the project had a utilisation focus and were developed in conjunction with our end-users. We spent a significant amount of time understanding our end-users{\textquoteright} challenges in order to create products that can help them make better decisions using economic analysis. We used their feedback to improve the tools developed and make them more accessible.

The work from this project has been published in 4 peer-reviewed publications, 8 conference papers and technical reports, 3 posters presented at conferences, and 4 online resources (see Project Publications section in this report).

}, keywords = {analysis, EAST, economics, mitigation, Natural hazards, natural hazards management, Policy, Value Tool}, issn = {666}, author = {Veronique Florec and Abbie Rogers and David J Pannell} } @article {bnh-7839, title = {Mitigating the effects of severe fire, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts - final project report}, number = {646}, year = {2021}, month = {02/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, titled Mitigating the effects of severe fires, floods and heatwaves through the improvements of land dryness measures and forecasts, was a partnership with the Bureau of Meteorology, and examined the use of detailed land surface models, satellite measurements and ground-based observations for the monitoring and prediction of landscape dryness. This project addresses a fundamental limitation in our ability to prepare for fires, floods and heatwaves and is directly linked to pre-event planning as well as forecasting of events. The research conducted in the present project solely focuses on the application of soil and land dryness/moisture in the context of fire danger and fire management practices. The lack of focus on flood and heatwave is circumstantial. The research priorities were set and driven by the requirements of the project end-users, all of them from various fire management agencies across Australia. Hence, the end-use interest was solely on the application of the research in fire management. Nevertheless, it is worth pointing that there is a substantial amount of research literature which establishes the importance of soil moisture in flood and heatwave prediction and applications.

Currently, landscape dryness for fire management is estimated in Australia using simple empirical models developed in the 1960s. The most prominent of those used in Australia are the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and the Soil Dryness Index (SDI). An initial study performed as part of this project suggested that analyses of soil moisture can be improved by using physics-based land surface models, remote sensing measurements and data assimilation.

JASMIN prototype

To address this, the present project developed a standalone prototype land surface modelling system, called Joint UK Land Environment Simulator based Australian Soil Moisture Information (JASMIN) to produce daily soil moisture analyses at 5km resolution and 4 soil layers. Verification against ground-based soil moisture observations shows that this prototype system is significantly more skilful than both KBDI and SDI.

Though JASMIN can supplement many applications that require accurate soil moisture estimates, the biggest beneficiary of this new system will be the fire agencies. The soil moisture estimate from the new system provides a robust alternative to the methods currently used in fire prediction. This is evident from the verifications performed against in situ measurements. KBDI and SDI show large errors over regions where they are used operationally. KBDI, for example, has a large wet bias over southern regions that could undermine fire danger ratings. The JASMIN system can produce reliable soil moisture information over a wide range of land-use types, which potentially extends its applicability to other fields as well. Also, JASMIN is shown to have good skill for both surface and deep soil horizons.

JASMIN calibration

To promote an effective adoption of JASMIN in current operational practices, calibration methods were applied to the native JASMIN soil moisture datasets. The key aim of these methods was to calibrate JASMIN outputs in units of moisture excess to moisture deficit values that range from 0{\textendash}200, as required by McArthur{\textquoteright}s Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI; McArthur, 1967). The calibration offers a simple, faster and cost-effective way to make significant upgrades to the existing operational systems used by fire and other environmental agencies.

The calibration methods applied were minimum-maximum matching, mean-variance matching, and cumulative distribution function matching. The selection of these calibration methods was based on the potential end-user requirement, whether that is to simply replace the legacy systems with a new product with high skill (e.g., minimum-maximum method), or to replace the existing system that captures the temporal variations better while preserving the climatology of the older system (e.g., mean-variance and cumulative distribution function matching). The latter could be useful if existing operating systems are already tuned to offset the bias in the current soil moisture deficit methods.

Improving high spatial resolution mapping

This project also aimed to improve applications such as fire danger mapping that may require soil moisture information at higher spatial resolution due to the large spatial variability of soil moisture in the landscape. A common practice to overcome such a problem is to employ downscaling methods to increase the spatial scale of the product. Recent advances in optical remote sensing have allowed researchers to use different remote sensing products that reflect soil moisture variability as ancillary information. A method based on a {\textquotedblleft}universal triangle{\textquotedblright} concept is used in several previous studies, which establishes a relationship between soil moisture, vegetation index, and surface radiant temperature from optical remote sensing. This project applied three downscaling methodologies: two based on regression and one based on a physics-based approach.

Results from the downscaling methodologies indicate that it is feasible to improve the spatial resolution of JASMIN using all three disaggregating algorithms and preserve the general large-scale spatial structure seen in JASMIN soil moisture estimates. However, the seasonal means obtained at 1 km show that each product displays characteristic soil moisture spatial variability at fine scales. Results from the comparison with ground-based soil moisture measurements indicate that there is no significant degradation of the bias in the three methods when moving to higher spatial resolution.

Predicting live fuel moisture content

Prediction of the moisture status in live fuels is an important gap in current fire management practices which, if filled, can potentially be useful for spatial and temporal assessment of landscape dryness. The final objective of the project was thus to explore the relationship between soil moisture and live fuel moisture content (LFMC) using the datasets from JASMIN and Australian Flammability Monitoring System (AFMS), respectively. The analysis carried out indicates that soil moisture is a leading indicator of LFMC. This project developed a simple yet skilful model to predict live fuel moisture content for the whole of Australia.

The key variable is the 0-350 mm layer soil moisture derived from the JASMIN system. The modelling strategy pursued consists of a linear combination of two sub-models: one to capture the annual cycle and one to capture the daily variations. A time function represents the LFMC annual cycle model. The daily deviations in LFMC are captured by using a linear regression model with 14-day lagged daily deviations in soil moisture as the input. The daily changes in soil moisture are computed by deviations from its annual cycle.

When evaluated over 60 sites, the approach returned an average R2 of 0.64 with normalised root mean square error values of \<25\% at all sites. As researchers were employing a gridded soil moisture product, this strategy facilitates the reconstruction of past events, as well as data gap filling. The lag of 14 days implies a lead time of 14 days for predicting the LFMC. This has significant operational implications, as daily variations in LFMC can be predicted using soil moisture information from JASMIN on a national scale.

JASMIN is currently run as a prototype research system, with soil moisture analysis done only near-real-time. However, JASMIN can be extended to produce both real-time analysis and forecasts. The prognostic mode can provide soil moisture forecasts for up to 10 days. This means a maximum lead time of 24 days can be achieved by utilising soil moisture forecasts.

JASMIN utilisation

A key focus of the project from its inception was to create pathways for easier utilisation of the project deliverables. This is reflected in both the scientific and technical approaches adopted in this project. For example, the calibration of JASMIN to KBDI and SDI was done to facilitate the ready utilisation of JASMIN in the existing operational system. A total of 8 calibrated JASMIN soil dryness products were developed and made available through the Bureau of Meteorology{\textquoteright}s THREDDS server. The JASMIN soil moisture in volumetric units at 4 layers are also provided via the THREDDS server for interested parties to evaluate. The volumetric soil moisture fields from the top two JASMIN layers (0-100 mm and 100-350 mm) are available via AFMS as well.

The datasets on both THREDDS and AFMS are updated near-real-time. There is a continuing interest in the end-user community in utilising JASMIN for various fire management applications. In that respect, JASMIN has been assessed in the Western Australian Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions study on tall wet forest fuel availability. Tasmania Parks and Wildlife has also been using JASMIN as a decision-support tool to restrict the use of open fires in national parks. Also, JASMIN data were updated specifically to assist with Tasmanian decision-making for 2018-19 seasonal bushfire assessment workshop and preseason consultative committee on fire weather.

The JASMIN system can produce reliable soil moisture estimates over a wide range of land-use types and can support many applications that require accurate soil moisture information. However, there is still scope for improvements to the JASMIN system, whether it be the skill or the scale.

An immediate focus could be the use of data assimilation techniques to improve the skill of JASMIN. Data assimilation allows uncertainties in land surface model soil moisture to be offset to some extent by routinely updating the hydrological conditions using the information provided by observations on state variables used by land surface models. The assimilation of satellite observations is shown to improve the model soil moisture state. In that respect, the use of NASA{\textquoteright}s land information system (LIS) is being evaluated at the Bureau. The LIS is a complex framework that uses extensible interfaces to allow the incorporation of new domains, land surface models, land surface parameters, meteorological inputs, data assimilation and optimisation algorithms. The extensible nature of these interfaces, and the component style specifications of the system, allow rapid prototyping and development of new applications. The JASMIN system can be incorporated within LIS to facilitate the assimilation of various observation types. Further, it can be leveraged to run JASMIN with an enhanced spatial resolution, desirably at 1 km.

}, keywords = {Floods, forecasts, heatwaves, land dryness, measures, mitigation, severe fire}, issn = {646}, author = {Vinod Kumar and Imtiaz Dharssi and Paul Fox-Hughes} } @article {bnh-8192, title = {Risk mitigation from prescribed burning in Kangaroo Island and Mount Lofty Ranges - Black Summer final report}, number = {690}, year = {2021}, month = {08/2021}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

According to the Independent Review into South Australia{\textquoteright}s 2019-20 Bushfire Season, conditions were the worst on record with fires resulting in the loss of three human lives, 196 homes, 660 vehicles, 68,000 livestock, $200m of agricultural production. Around 280,000 ha were burnt by the fires, including total or partial burning of several National Parks.

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC commissioned this project as part of a larger set of Black Summer fires research projects aimed at understanding the record-breaking fire season. This project focuses on answering questions about the effectiveness of prescribed burning, also known as hazard reduction burning, in mitigating risk in two areas affected by fires during the season: The Mount Lofty Ranges east of Adelaide, and Kangaroo Island.

The key questions were:

  1. How does risk respond to treatment in Kangaroo Island, an area with little formal quantification of prescribed burning benefits and costs?
  2. What was the risk in the leadup to the 2019-20 fire season in the Mt Lofty Ranges, and how will risk change in the next five years as a result of the implied fuel reduction from the fires, as well as alternative prescribed burning strategies?

These questions were answered using a well developed methodology combining large scale fire behaviour simulations and Bayesian risk quantification. Similar analyses have been carried out for a range of case study landscapes in southern Australia as part of the Hectares to tailor-made solutions CRC project, with results available online via the end-user tool the Prescribed Burning Atlas, and also the NSW Bushfire Risk Management Research Hub{\textquoteright}s projects for the NSW Bushfire Inquiry.

We found a clear relationship between the rate of prescribed burning and area subsequently burnt by wildfire in the Kangaroo Island case study. This translated into reductions in loss of life and property as well. Risk mitigation was more sensitive to edge treatment than landscape treatment, although both reduced risk. Conversely, increasing treatment (particularly at the edge) resulted in higher areas of the landscape exposed to vegetation being burnt below its minimum tolerable fire interval.

In the Mt Lofty Ranges, we found complex patterns of risk are likely in the aftermath of the 2019-20 fires. In the absence of further wildfire events, risk of area burnt is likely to rise substantially by 2025, regardless of prescribed burning rates, with a similar result for vegetation exposed to too frequent fire. However, risk sto life, property and infrastructure are projected to remain similar to current levels.

Our work contributes to the evidence base for prescribed burning planning in South Australia, with future work potentially examining new management values (e.g. smoke health costs, new biodiversity measures) and exploring empirical relationships between prescribed burning and fire-affected area in 2019-20.

}, keywords = {black summer, kangaroo island, mitigation, Mount Lofty Ranges, Prescribed burning, risk}, issn = {690}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Brett Cirulis and Owen Price and Ross Bradstock and Matthias M. Boer and Anthony Rawlins and Trent Penman} } @article {bnh-6977, title = {Australian inquiries into natural hazard events: Recommendations relating to urban planning for natural hazard mitigation (2009-2017)}, number = {571}, year = {2020}, month = {06/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This document reports on an assessment of major Australian post disaster and emergency event inquiries and reviews from the past 10 years in terms of recommendations relating to the integration of urban planning and natural hazard mitigation.

Findings from this review must be understood in the context of inquiries {\textendash}examinations of events seeking mainly to identify problems and areas for improvement.\  Accordingly, the recommendations do not typically highlight successes or existing strengths, even while these may be well understood and recognised by those involved. Additionally, this report has avoided making detailed assessments of the numbers of various recommendation types, given the uneven distribution of a relatively low number of events. Nonetheless, the emphases upon certain areas and omission of others suggest areas for future improvement.

}, keywords = {events, inquiries, mitigation, Natural hazards, urban planning}, issn = {571}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7196, title = {Benefit versus cost analysis and optimal cost effective mitigation strategies}, number = {598}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This report forms part of the output to a research project entitled {\textquoteleft}Cost effective mitigation strategy development for flood prone buildings{\textquoteright} within the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. The motivation for this project arises from the experience and observations during the recent flooding in Australia in 2011, 2013 and 2015, which caused widespread devastation in Queensland. A fundamental reason for this damage was inappropriate development in floodplains and a legacy of high risk building stock in flood prone areas. The BNHCRC project aims to address this issue and is targeted at assessing mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of existing residential building stock in Australian floodplains.

Previous project steps towards achieving this goal have included the development of a building schema to categorise the Australian residential building stock and a literature review of mitigation strategies developed nationally and internationally. The review categorised strategies into elevation, relocation, dry floodproofing, wet floodproofing and the use of flood barriers. Five typical storey types which represent the most common residential buildings in Australia have been selected to evaluate the above mentioned mitigation strategies.

\ Each mitigation strategy has been costed through engagement of a professional quantity surveyor and the application of the mitigation strategies and resultant reduction in susceptibility of damage has been quantified in the form of vulnerability models for mitigated storey types.

This report presents an assessment of the cost-effectiveness of flood mitigation strategies to residential buildings in Launceston Tasmania through a benefit versus cost analysis. The benefit versus cost analysis requires assessing loss both pre-and post-mitigation for a range of flood likelihoods with the difference being the benefit. The costs of the applied mitigation are then compared to the benefits with a benefit versus cost ratio of greater than 1.0 indicating an economically viable decision.

In the research presented here the mitigation options were typically assessed as cost-effective when considering damage to the rersidential buildings with the probable maximum flood extent.\  An important modelling assumption was to assume that the existing levee system that does provide a level of flood protection to Launceston was not in place (i.e. the City was unprotected). The results here are also only for one catchment and its behavior and also for the building stock in Launceston. The use of temporary flood barriers around the area with the highest flood hazard was the most cost-effective measure.

Work will continue with cost versus benefit analyses planned for other locations with different building stock configuarations and different catchment type behaviours. The result will be an evidence base to inform decision making by government and property owners on the mitigation of flood risk. The evidence base will feature information on the cost effectiveness of different mitigation strategies and optimal solutions for different cases of building and catchment types.

}, keywords = {benefit, buildings, cost analysis, Flood, mitigation, strategies}, issn = {598}, author = {Maqsood, T and Dale, K and Martin Wehner} } @article {bnh-7378, title = {Cost-effective mitigation strategy development for building related earthquake risk: annual report 2019-2020}, number = {614}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

This annual report contains a summary of research undertaken by 4 partner institutions towards the development of cost-effective seismic retrofit methods for vulnerable Australian buildings in the 12-month period from July 2019 through June 2020.

Progress has been made in 4 complementary fronts to:

  1. understand the seismic vulnerabilities of existing unreinforced masonry (URM) and limited ductile reinforced concrete (LDRC) buildings and methods to address them through seismic retrofit
  2. risk assessment of the building stock through development of an economic loss model
  3. advance an end-user focused research utilization project in the area of community risk reduction. This is done through an Earthquake Mitigation Case Study of the historic town of York in Western Australia
  4. commencement of an End-User Utilisation Project with York Shire Council and the WA Department of Fire and Emergency Services through a Natural Disaster Resilience Program funded grant.

The first of the above components is being researched in the Universities of Adelaide, Melbourne, and Swinburne. This work includes investigation of existing building seismic capacities and development of retrofit techniques. The second area is being studied by Geoscience and the work includes estimating direct and indirect losses associated with building damage and benefits from seismic retrofit. The third component is being conducted utilizing the research findings in the two other areas in collaboration with the Western Australia Department of Fire and Emergency Services, York Shire Council and its residents. The last component only started at the end of 2019 but is extremely exciting. To date, the project team has identified several URM buildings in the York Shire to act as {\textquoteleft}exemplars{\textquoteright} for seismic retrofit. The first of these, the York Residency Museum building, has been seismically assessed, retrofit solutions recommended, local consultants (engineering and building contractors) have submitted a report and estimated costings for the rehabilitation work and Council is now in discussions with the contractor.

Finally, using the new damage loss models and costings for seismically retrofitting buildings, recommendations are made for the development of seismic retrofit guidelines and policy based on the strong evidence base being developed by this CRC project team.

}, keywords = {building, earthquake, mitigation, risk, strategy}, issn = {614}, author = {Michael Griffith} } @article {bnh-7186, title = {Earthquake mitigation of WA regional towns: York case study - final report}, number = {596}, year = {2020}, month = {08/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {MELBOURNE}, abstract = {

Earthquake hazard was only fully recognised for Australian building design in the early 1990{\textquoteright}s following the Newcastle Earthquake of 1989. This has resulted in a significant legacy of Australian buildings that are inherently more vulnerable to low to moderate earthquake generated ground motion. Having accessible knowledge of the most effective measures to retrofit older masonry buildings will enable and encourage the strengthening of buildings resulting in more resilient communities.

Western Australia has a region of elevated seismicity inland from Perth where there are located several older regional towns having a predominance of older unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings. In 1968 the town of Meckering was devastated by an earthquake (Gordon et al, 1980), which destroyed the town{\textquoteright}s URM building stock and damaged URM buildings in other neighbouring towns. The town of York, situated approximately 37km from the epicentre was also significantly damaged (Everingham et al, 1982). The combination of high hazard and vulnerability in this region points to a need for informed mitigation measures.

This project entailed undertaking a mitigation implementation study of York, Western Australia{\textquoteright}s oldest inland town, which has many valuable historical buildings that are vulnerable to damage by a large earthquake. This utilisation project sits beneath and draws upon the vulnerability and economic modelling research outcomes of the BNHCRC project {\textquotedblleft}Cost-effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building related Earthquake Risk{\textquotedblright}. Utilising the outcomes of the project a range of mitigation strategies have been virtually applied to the town{\textquoteright}s URM buildings. This has enabled an assessment of the effectiveness of these interventions on community risk and emergency management (EM) logistics in the context of rare, but credible, earthquakes.

In this report the research and its outcomes are presented and discussed. Further, recommendations are made for future retrofit strategy implementation in York and more broadly in Western Australia. In particular, a new NDRP project is described that will build upon this BNHCRC project in testing the application of the measures in actual retrofit work undertaken in York. This BNHCRC project has been led by the University of Adelaide (UoA) with project partner Geoscience Australia (GA). The end users are the Shire of York and the WA Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) with valuable contributions made by the WA Department of Planning, Lands and Heritage. Through the workshop activity reported there have also been valuable guidance from Engineering Heritage, WA, and the Insurance Australia Group (IAG).

}, keywords = {earthquake, mitigation, regional towns, york}, issn = {596}, author = {Martin Wehner and Hyeuk Ryu and Michael Griffith and Mark Edwards and Neil Corby and Itismita Mohanty and Jaroslav Vaculik and Trevor Allen} } @article {bnh-7389, title = {From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation {\textendash} final project report}, number = {615}, year = {2020}, month = {09/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

We are pleased to present the 2020 Final Report for the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC project, {\textquotedblleft}From hectares to tailor-made solutions for risk mitigation: systems to deliver effective prescribed burning across Australian ecosystems{\textquotedblright}.

Prescribed burning is a central feature of contemporary fire management, not just in Australia but in fire-prone countries around the world. Yet we lack a firm quantitative basis for understanding and comparing its effectiveness at mitigating risk across different regions. This project aims to address these gaps and provide critical support to agency decision makers across southern Australia by undertaking a systematic investigation of the drivers of prescribed burning effectiveness across the region. This project will thus support fire managers in transitioning from hectare targets to a set of tailor-made, risk-based approaches.

The project is divided into two phases: fire behaviour accounting and risk accounting. At the heart of the project is predictive modelling of the effect of prescribed burning on subsequent bushfire (wildfire) behaviour. In this project we combine ignition likelihood modelling, fuel type and arrangement from fire management agencies, weather representing all possible local fire weather conditions from Bureau of Meteorology and fire history including wildfire and variable combinations of edge and landscape treatments, applied to agency or model-derived burn blocks. From thousands of simulations, key outputs such as fire size and intensity are used estimate impacts on key management values: house loss, life loss, length of road damaged, length of powerline damaged and area burnt below minimum tolerable fire interval. We use Bayesian decision networks to estimate risk mitigation, including cost, available through different treatments. Local trajectories of cost for given treatment rates and locations can then be tracked and compared between regions, allowing identification of the most cost-effective prescribed burning strategies, either overall or for a given management value.

The key finding of the project is that the effectiveness of prescribed burning at mitigating area burnt by bushfire and other key values varies considerably across landscapes and values. That is, there is no one-size-fits-all solution to prescribed burning. This has major implications for fire managers, suggesting that tailored prescribed burning solutions are possible, based on the unique risk mitigation profile for any given suite of management values in that region. Further details are included in this report and journal articles listed herein.

While the project now draws to a close, its findings live on in the Prescribed Burning Atlas, a dedicated website for fire managers, researchers and anyone else interested in using our project to support their planning, decision making and communication. The Prescribed Burning Atlas will provide a geographically-based summary of risk for decision makers in an accessible, user friendly format. Our project is unique in placing the design and delivery of this utilisation output at its heart. Active involvement of end-users throughout 2020 and beyond will be crucial in ensuring uptake and translation into outcomes for end-users and the communities they serve. From a research perspective, key outstanding questions include quantification of risk mitigation for new values (smoke effects on human health, biodiversity measures, cultural burning) and expansion of the approach to represent the full richness of planned and unplanned landscape fire over time.

}, keywords = {ecosystems, hectares, mitigation, Prescribed burning, risk, systems, tailor-made solutions}, issn = {615}, author = {Hamish Clarke and Brett Cirulis and Trent Penman and Owen Price and Matthias M. Boer and Ross Bradstock} } @article {bnh-6576, title = {Integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation}, number = {535}, year = {2020}, month = {01/2020}, institution = {Bushfire \& Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report is the third in a series produced for the BNHCRC-funded project Integrating Urban Planning and Natural Hazard Mitigation. The first report constituted a theoretical exploration of integration between urban planning and emergency management supported by an overarching understanding of national and state contexts for these two fields of inquiry and practice, with a focus on the states of Victoria and South Australia. This report generated a preliminary framework used to subsequently interrogate a series of urbanplanning-related recommendations from royal commissions of inquiry and reviews targeting natural-hazard-related events in the past ten years, summarised in the second report.

Building on the preliminary framework of integration previously developed, this current report presents the development of an analytical framework for assessing integration between urban planning and emergency management arrangements and practice and its application in a real case in the state of Victoria. Findings presented in this report serves as the basis for the analysis of the South Australian case of integration in a moment when its planning system is under considerate reforms. A separate report containing findings from this subsequent analysis is to be submitted next.

}, keywords = {Bushfire, mitigation, Natural hazards, Risk assessment, urban planning}, issn = {535}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-7738, title = {Integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation {\textendash} final project report}, number = {635}, year = {2020}, month = {12/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Context

Urban planning systems have considerable potential to modify the impacts of natural hazards upon the built environment, humans and associated systems. With the increased frequency of natural hazards due to climate change and increased exposure to hazards due to population growth pressures, especially in the urban-rural interface, there are also increased consequences for human settlements and likely exacerbation of the challenges associated with natural hazard impact.

In this context, this project sought to understand the limits and potentials of integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation in Australia, and the ways in which key planning processes for risk-based decision-making in the built environment can be improved. By doing so, it identified many gaps in the ways we currently seek to integrate urban planning and natural hazard risk management.

The primary questions posed by this research project were:

PQ1 {\textendash} What are the limits and potentials of integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation in Australia?

PQ2 {\textendash} How can key planning processes for risk-based decision making in the built environment be improved at local and state level, including generalizable and adaptable model processes and codes with practical illustrative cases?

Method

The project comprised 3 sequential stages that resulted in the development of diagnostic tools to assess and improve the integration of urban planning and natural hazard mitigation in Australia.

The first stage{\textendash}Mapping Current Knowledge, Best Practice and Challenges{\textendash}established an analytical framework to assess integration based on current knowledge, best practice and challenges. Using desktop research and end-user workshops, core integration principles were identified.

In the second stage{\textendash}Assessing Australian Planning and Ways Forward{\textendash}the set of integration principles was refined through its application to past Australian inquiries into natural hazard events. An analytical framework for assessing integration was also developed and diagrammatically represented to illustrate and map critical variables for the integration of Urban Planning and Natural Hazard Mitigation.

The third stage{\textendash}Applying and Generating Knowledge in New Ways{\textendash}applied and generated knowledge by undertaking an assessment of urban planning and natural hazard mitigation in two Australian case studies. In consultation with end-users, this assessment targeted proposed land use planning reforms in South Australia and a historical case of edge development in Metropolitan Melbourne in Victoria. Findings from these case studies informed the development of critical frameworks for best practice comprising three sets of diagnostic tools.

Learnings and findings

Learnings were captured in a set of scalable and adaptable diagnostic tools that are part of critical frameworks for best practice in integrating urban planning and natural hazard mitigation in Australia. These diagnostic tools allow assessment of integration and risk management across urban planning and emergency management systems and processes. This set of tools is the final product for this research project and the utilisation output delivered to end-users. This output represents a comprehensive understanding of the potentials and limits of urban planning systems when it comes to disaster risk reduction. It allows for a range of new ways forward to fully utilise and integrate urban planning with natural hazard mitigation actions and outcomes. Broadly, these diagnostic tools suggest that a comprehensive assessment of integration of urban planning and natural hazard mitigation should include consideration of

Utilisation

This project is in its first three-year cycle, so it was not able to move into utilisation.\  However, the outcomes of the work provide an ability to understand, critique and improve urban planning{\textquoteright}s influence and impact on risk reduction to natural hazards, providing many new ways forward.

Therefore, there is great potential for the utilisation of the critical model developed in the research to assess and guide reform in processes of land use planning in existing and future settlements. In particular, modifying the processes of state and local government during planning decision-making is likely to yield significant impact. The development of illustrative critical and explanatory understandings of the importance and application of urban planning as a tool for disaster risk reduction is in and of itself a significant output that can be utilised.

Many of the project findings have been included in the AIDR Handbook {\textquotedblleft}Land Use Planning for Disaster Resilient Communities{\textquotedblright} (March \& Gonzalez-Mathiesen, 2020) and have informed submissions to the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (Stanley et al., 2020)and to the Inquiry into the 2019-2020 Victorian Fire Season (Stanley et al., 2020,embargoed).

There are many potential areas for ongoing utilisation. These fall under the following broad categories:

}, keywords = {integrated, mitigation, natural hazard, urban planning}, issn = {635}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes} } @article {bnh-6782, title = {Progress report on case study CBD precinct}, number = {552}, year = {2020}, month = {03/2020}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The CRC Project A9 entitled {\textquotedblleft}Cost-Effective Mitigation Strategy Development for Building Related Earthquake Risk{\textquotedblright} is seeking to address the need for an evidence base to inform decision making on the mitigation of the earthquake risk posed by vulnerable Australian buildings. It aims to develop information related to more vulnerable Australian building types in the following areas:

This project also includes a case study to demonstrate the utility of the research with central Melbourne identified as the locality. Central Melbourne has a concentration of older unreinforced masonry buildings so the case study will examine the current risk posed by these and how they can be mitigated through application of the measures developed in this CRC project. Significantly this project will link to the concluding utilisation project on York and will integrate research outcomes on heritage value to be developed by the CRC project {\textquotedblleft}Economics of Natural Hazards{\textquotedblright} led by the University of Western Australia. This progress report describes the scope, the research elements and status of these, and the process by which they are being integrated into the final research outcomes. It also provides background to a requested variation to delay the final deliverable and associated CRC payment to enable other research outputs to be integrated.

This report corresponds with the 30 September 2019 project milestone deliverable {\textquotedblleft}Progress Report on Case Study CBSD Precinct{\textquotedblright}, BNHCRC reference 3.1.2.

}, keywords = {buildings, cbd, Decision making, earthquake risk, mitigation}, issn = {552}, author = {Hyeuk Ryu and Martin Wehner and Mark Edwards and Itismita Mohanty} } @conference {bnh-6513, title = {Future risk framework: understanding tomorrow{\textquoteright}s risk and what we can do to reduce it}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Unless appropriate mitigation action is taken, disaster risk is likely to increase into the future due to factors such as climate change, population growth, economic development and an ageing population. Consequently, there is a pressing need to think about plausible future risks and how to best mitigate them. This paper presents the future risk framework, which provides a structured, stepwise approach for relevant agencies to explore future risk and what it means for their organisation. The framework consists of four main steps, progressively increasing in levels of insight into future risk, as well as increasing the level of quantification of risk. A key feature of the framework is the incorporation of sense-making and its implementation consists of a combination of participatory approaches and the use of data, information, modelling and analysis. Application of the framework is illustrated for the case study of Greater Adelaide, South Australia, highlighting the approaches used and the level of insight into future risk obtained at each of the four stages. A discussion on the challenges associated with using this insight to mitigate future risk is also provided, suggesting that a collaborative, multidisciplinary, multi-agency approach is needed to effectively mitigate all aspects of future risk, especially those associated with increases in exposure and vulnerability.\ 

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {Climate change, Disaster risk, mitigation, Planning, risk management, risk reduction}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Holger Maier and Aaron Zecchin and Roel Vanhout and James Daniell and Sofanit Araya and Graeme Dandy and Jeffrey Newman} } @article {bnh-6236, title = {Integrated urban planning for natural hazard mitigation: annual report 2018-2019}, number = {522}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This document reports on the carried-out activities, achieved milestones, and submitted deliverables for the second year of operation of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Integrated Urban Planning for Natural Hazard Mitigation project {\textendash} 1st July 2018 to 30th June 2019. It contrasts achieved and planned outcomes and explains the necessary adjustments carried out to date. It starts by offering a background to the project, followed by considerations to the research approach being undertaken and then an explanation of the project implementation in greater detail and its utilisation outputs. This Year 2 {\textendash} 2018-2019 report will be followed by one final annual report to be submitted in mid-2020. In parallel to annual reports, this research project generates quarterly reports that further detail its operation every three months, as well as yearly self-assessment matrices. On the 30th of June 2020, a final report summarising key research project outcomes will also be submitted.

}, keywords = {Emergency management, future, integrating, mitigation, Planning, urban}, issn = {522}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes} } @conference {bnh-6027, title = {Mitigating earthquake risk in Australia}, booktitle = {2019 Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Annual NZSEE Conference}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, abstract = {

Earthquake risk is not limited to tectonic plate boundary countries. While less frequent, significant earthquakes can occur in intraplate countries like Australia which can have severe consequences. For Australia this is particularly the case as earthquake hazard has not been recognised in the design of buildings and community infrastructure for most of the country{\textquoteright}s settled history. Significant risks exist where community assets are by their nature inherently vulnerable to strong ground shaking. This paper describes three initiatives that are assisting Australian emergency management, infrastructure managers and local government to prepare for and mitigate these risks.

The first of these highlights how the characteristics of geological hazards differ from severe meteorological hazards. The very non-linear nature of impact severity with longer average recurrence interval earthquakes is demonstrated and how this information is supporting emergency management planning including capacity sharing between Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries in the region is described. Secondly, the paper describes how this research is developing knowledge of the factors behind the vulnerability of critical infrastructure facilities and the options to mitigate these. The software tool System for Infrastructure Facility Resilience Analysis (SIFRA) is described which enables infrastructure facility components to be examined in the context of physical vulnerability, system criticality, repair cost and restoration time. Finally, a utilisation project of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC working with the local government of York Shire in Western Australia (WA) is described. The project is providing information on the effectiveness of targeted retrofit of the heritage town of York to rare earthquakes and how this action by property owners can be incentivised.

}, keywords = {earthquake, mitigation, Vulnerability}, url = {http://db.nzsee.org.nz/2019/Oral/8C.05\%20Edwards.pdf}, author = {Mark Edwards and Muhamman Rahman and Hyeuk Ryu and Martin Wehner and Neil Corby and Michael Griffith and Jaroslav Vaculik} } @conference {bnh-6512, title = {The mitigation exercise: a long term mitigation planning process, with a coastal flooding case study in Adelaide}, booktitle = {AFAC19 powered by INTERSCHUTZ - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forum}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, publisher = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, organization = {Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

The Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) has had a cluster of research projects focused on economics and strategic decisions to improve mitigation since its commencement in 2013. A great deal of work has been done across the economic dimension looking at such issues as:
{\textbullet} risk ownership {\textbullet} non-market value of losses {\textbullet} tracking the impacts of disasters as they ripple through sectors of the economy {\textbullet} land use planning policies for reducing losses

These projects seek to present end-users, emergency management agencies and organisations, as well as recovery agency and other relevant departments such as planning and treasury, with more accurate insights into the potential losses from disasters.

Download the full non-peer reviewed research proceedings\ from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Forumhere.

}, keywords = {coastal, Emergency management, Floods, mitigation, risk management, strategies}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/australian-journal-of-emergency-management-monograph-series/}, author = {Ed Pikusa} } @conference {bnh-6402, title = {The physical impact of strong winds and heavy rain on residential housing: a pilot study}, booktitle = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Research Day AFAC19}, year = {2019}, month = {12/2019}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

Research in the social science area have pointed out that "traditional" hazard-based forecasts and warnings may not be well understood so that mitigating actions for the protection of life and property are not taken (Demuth et al. 2012). The extension of a hazard forecast towards the description of impacts on the forecast recipient might effect a more suitable mitigating response and has led to an emerging and growing desire among National Hydrological and Meteorological Services for impact-based forecasts and warnings (Harrowsmith 2015; World Meteorological Organization 2015).

A number of major weather services (e.g. UK Met Office, Bureau of Meteorology) have therefore introduced impact-based services in recognition of the above findings. Since 2011 the UK Met Office has issued impact-based warnings where the warning level is derived from a risk matrix in a partly subjective procedure (Met Office 2018). In a related manner, the Extreme Weather Desk at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has recently developed the Community Hazard Risk Outlook. Forecasters subjectively rate the expected impact level of a model-predicted hazard on a range of assets from which an aggregated impact level is calculated. Combined with a subjective likelihood assessment the UK Met Office risk matrix concept is again utilised to derive an overall hazard risk.

In addition to subjective or partly subjective impact specifications, the factors influential in the final likelihood, location or magnitude of an impact can be delivered as layers, which leaves their integration to the user. An example of such a system is the Global Hazard Map, also produced by the UK Met Office (Robbins and Titley 2018).

}, keywords = {assessment, Forecasting, impact-based, likelihood, mitigation, Warnings}, url = {Research in the social science area have pointed out that "traditional" hazard-based forecasts and warnings may not be well understood so that mitigating actions for the protection of life and property are not taken (Demuth et al. 2012). The extension of }, author = {Harald Richter and Craig Arthur and Martin Wehner and David Wilke and Mark Dunford and Beth Ebert} } @article {bnh-6665, title = {Australian inquiries into natural hazard events}, number = {544}, year = {2018}, month = {11/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This is the second research report for the Integrated Urban Planning for Natural Hazard Mitigation BNH-CRC project and constitutes a preliminary assessment of selected current approaches to integrating urban planning and natural hazard mitigation. Major post-event inquiries can play an important role in pushing for the reform of current urban planning arrangements to target disaster risk reduction. This was evident in the implementation of the Bushfire Management Overlay (see Appendix 1) and related statutory mechanisms in the State of Victoria after the 2009 Bushfires. Furthermore, recommendations can shed light on areas perceived as gaps during wider assessments of causes and contributory factors relating to major hazard events. Therefore, a review of urban-planning-related recommendations following major post-event inquiries and reviews across all-natural hazards will form the basis of this report, considering the role of urban planning in reducing emergent and legacy risks associated with the built environment.

The form of post-event inquiries varies widely, from the focused, technical and brief, to wide-ranging and lengthy such as those carried out by a Royal Commission (Eburn \& Dovers, 2015). While the recommendations of inquiries are very rarely binding on governments, they nonetheless carry significant weight and implementation is the norm. There were 142 post-event inquiries in Australia between 2009 and 2017, constituting by far the largest body of evaluation data regarding actual or perceived issues in disaster prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. This report begins to explore those recommendations from 55 major inquiries that relate to urban planning (Cole, Dovers, Eburn, \& Gough, 2017; Cole, Dovers, Gough, \& Eburn, 2018).

In this context, a preliminary assessment of urban-planning-related recommendations put forward by major post-event inquiries and reviews proved a worthwhile undertaking as the first step into understanding current approaches to integrating urban planning and natural hazard mitigation in the past 10 years.

The assessment of these recommendations was informed by the analytical framework developed in the first research report for this project, developed through a review of relevant literature and in consultation with end-users. This analytical framework proposed a set of elements of an approach to integration, and a general list of urban planning tools and another of urban planning treatments of risk that can be used to support natural hazard mitigation.

Assessing urban-planning-related recommendations against the set of categories proposed in this analytical framework targeted both the mapping of these recommendations to unveil concentrations as well as the testing and expansion of the framework through its first practical application.

Findings from this preliminary assessment will inform the next stage of this research project which consists in the assessment of specific Australian and international case studies. The former will provide an opportunity to contrast recommendations with implemented integration while the later holds potential for an expansion of possibilities to integration to those already being employed in Australia.

}, keywords = {events, inquiries, mitigation, Natural hazards, urban planning}, issn = {544}, author = {Alan March and Leonardo Nogueira de Moraes and Graeme Riddell and Dovers, Steve and Janet Stanley and Hedwig van Delden and Ruth Beilin and Holger Maier} } @article {bnh-4738, title = {Southeast Australia Aboriginal fire forum}, year = {2018}, month = {09/2018}, institution = {Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC}, address = {Melbourne}, abstract = {

This report was written as part of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre{\textquoteright}s {\textquoteleft}Hazards, Culture and Indigenous Communities{\textquoteright} research project (BNHCRC{\textquoteright}s HCIC). The HCIC research project focuses on collaborations between Aboriginal groups and natural hazards management agencies across southern Australia (see further Appendix 3). The BNHCRC is funded through a combination of Commonwealth research monies, as well as financial and in-kind contributions from government organisations, research institutions and nongovernment organisations. We were invited to attend the Forum and write this report by the Murumbung Rangers, with whom we have one of our case study relationships; nevertheless, this is an independent research report written with respect to the HCIC project{\textquoteright}s research priorities. The Forum facilitators, Coolamon Advisors, prepared an official Forum Report which summarises key findings and provides recommendations emerging from the speakers and participants over the first two days of the forum (Coolamon Advisors 2018). This research report includes excerpts from the Forum Report in textboxes. These reports are valuable for the work of key actors involved in cultural burning, whether they attended the forum or not.

}, keywords = {culture, Fire, indigenous, mitigation, Natural hazards}, issn = {413}, author = {Will Smith and Jessica Weir and Timothy Neale} } @article {bnh-4570, title = {Valuing recovery through risk ownership}, journal = {Australian Journal of Emergency Management}, volume = {33}, year = {2017}, month = {11/2017}, abstract = {
As the risks encountered by natural hazards change and become more dynamic, so too, does the task of recovering from them. To manage natural hazards, planners must plan for the unexpected; building resilience before, during and after events. Currently, recovery funding is limited to a two-year window. Devastated communities that do not recover during this time rely on ad hoc funding to support patchy recovery beyond this. Planning for long-term recovery needs to be embedded throughout the risk assessment process to be effective. This presents a number of challenges. By identifying the longer-term risks and their consequences in advance, sustained recovery can be planned for all social, environmental and economic values (assets). This will determine what recovery interventions may be needed and when they are likely be most effective.

}, keywords = {lessons management., mitigation, Natural hazards, prevention, risk ownership, risks}, url = {https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/ajem-jan-2018-valuing-recovery-through-risk-ownership/}, author = {Celeste Young and Roger Jones} }