@article {bnh-5694, title = {Exploratory scenario analysis for disaster risk reduction: Considering alternative pathways in disaster risk assessment}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, abstract = {

Disaster risk is a combination of natural hazards, along with society{\textquoteright}s exposure and vulnerability to them. Therefore, to ensure effective, long-term disaster risk reduction we must consider the dynamics of each of these components and how they change over extended periods due to population, economic and climatic drivers, as well as policy and individual decisions. This paper provides a methodology to capture these factors within exploratory scenarios designed to test the effectiveness of policy responses to reduce disaster losses. The scenarios developed and subsequent analysis of them combine knowledge and insight from stakeholders and experts, and make use of simulation modelling to enable scenarios with qualitative and quantitative elements to be integrated within risk assessment processes and contribute to strategic risk treatments. The methodology was applied to a case-study in Greater Adelaide, Australia, and used to assess how disaster risk for earthquakes, bushfire and coastal inundation changes from 2016 to 2050 under five exploratory scenarios for the future of the region. This analysis can be applied more broadly to consider how future risks impacts on regional viability, and suitability for investment related to the need to gain a better understanding of governmental and organisational exposure to physical risks.

}, keywords = {Disaster risk, Risk assessment, Scenarios, Simulation modelling, Stakeholder engagement}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101230}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919302286}, author = {Graeme Riddell and Hedwig van Delden and Holger Maier and Aaron Zecchin} } @article {bnh-5763, title = {Older adults in disaster and emergency management: What are the priority research areas in Australia?}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {39}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, abstract = {

In Australia, the proportion of people aged over 65 years is increasing and the frequency and severity of natural hazard events are also increasing. Older adults are often identified as a vulnerable group in natural hazard events, but there has been relatively little research that focuses specifically on older adults and their capacities and needs. This paper describes stakeholder consultation undertaken to identify research priorities related to older adults and natural hazards in Australia, and compares this to current research literature on this topic identified in an initial scoping review. A two-phase modified Delphi study was undertaken with stakeholder organisations within Australia, including older adults{\textquoteright} representative organisations, community services, and emergency services. Stakeholders (n = 112) first identified priority research areas and 649 distinct topics were suggested; thematic analysis was used to refine these to 19 research topic areas that were then rated and ranked for importance by stakeholders during phase two. The top five topic areas identified were {\textquoteleft}Communication and warnings,{\textquoteright} {\textquoteleft}Preparedness,{\textquoteright} {\textquoteleft}Awareness, behaviour and decision-making,{\textquoteright} {\textquoteleft}Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) communities,{\textquoteright} and {\textquoteleft}Community services and organisations{\textquoteright}. While these topics are covered in some Australian literature, further research {\textendash} particularly in relation to CALD communities, and community services/organisations {\textendash} is needed. This study demonstrates the value of stakeholder engagement and the Delphi approach for identifying research priorities that can best address issues and concerns amongst diverse stakeholders. It also highlights that there is a need for further research with older adults, communities, and stakeholders to support preparedness, risk reduction, and resilience.

}, keywords = {CALD, Disaster management, Emergency management, Natural hazards, Older adults, Stakeholder engagement}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101248}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919301736?dgcid=coauthor}, author = {Lisa Fountain and Matalena Tofa and Katharine Haynes and Mel Taylor and Susan Ferguson} }